Simeon McMillan
Person
Simeon McMillan is a finance and strategy professional and the writer behind Accrued Interest, where he analyzes companies, markets, and media-industry transactions. He is a former media executive and Wall Street professional.
What Simeon McMillan has said on podcasts
33 statements
Nintendo remains highly cyclical and dependent on hardware upgrade cycles.
“I think it's incredibly cyclical stock that has not been able to break out of its dependence on the hardware upgrade cycle.”
Open the episode · $NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued InterestListen at 5:17
Nintendo lacks the flywheel needed to escape console cycles.
“the flywheel is not there.”
Open the episode · $NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued InterestListen at 6:17
Nintendo needs stronger Switch 2 software sales to transition audiences.
“they need to sell more Switch 2 software because that's how you bring the audience over to the next cycle”
Open the episode · $NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued InterestListen at 6:52
Nintendo remakes have limited commercial longevity.
“remakes only get but so much juice.”
Open the episode · $NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued InterestListen at 7:32
Nintendo’s higher console prices will reduce demand.
“You're gonna lose some demand.”
Open the episode · $NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued InterestListen at 12:15
Nintendo expects memory costs to remain elevated soon.
“by raising prices so early, Nintendo implicitly told you that they don't see memory costs coming down anytime soon.”
Open the episode · $NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued InterestListen at 13:27
A Switch 2 Lite is unlikely to arrive soon.
“I'm not expecting a Switch 2 Lite anytime soon.”
Open the episode · $NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued InterestListen at 13:32
Zelda resonates less with young children than Mario.
“Zelda doesn't have the same resonance with young kids as Mario does.”
Open the episode · $NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued InterestListen at 14:30
Nintendo is relatively weak in online gaming.
“Nintendo is not known for strong online play.”
Open the episode · $NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued InterestListen at 21:33
Nintendo needs two to three movies annually to build a connected media universe.
“for them to really go in on this whole connected universe, I need to see 2 to 3 movies a year, every year”
Open the episode · $NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued InterestListen at 24:15
Nintendo needs roughly a dozen theme parks and more television shows.
“I need a dozen. I need way more TV shows.”
Open the episode · $NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued InterestListen at 24:30
Nintendo’s partial Pokémon ownership limits its potential upside.
“this is a brand that I wish they owned 100% of.”
Open the episode · $NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued InterestListen at 26:47
Nintendo’s earnings are too uneven to hold for two years.
“right now it's too lumpy for me to hold it for 2 years.”
Open the episode · $NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued InterestListen at 28:36
Spotify’s royalty rate declines as subscriber growth increases.
“Spotify's royalty rate actually goes down the— called the faster they grow, the more subscribers they get.”
Open the episode · $NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued InterestListen at 31:48
Spotify podcasting shifted from loss-making to profitable.
“podcasting went from being like a money pit to a positive one.”
Open the episode · $NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued InterestListen at 35:20
AI is likely a net positive for Spotify.
“I think it is a net positive for them”
Open the episode · $NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued InterestListen at 38:26
Spotify’s rights portfolio enables AI creations unavailable to competitors.
“because they have the rights and the clearance to all the songs and the publishing or whatever, they can do remixes and other sort of AI creations that another company can't do”
Open the episode · $NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued InterestListen at 38:52
Spotify earnings could grow about 20% annually over the next few years.
“I could see 'em growing, you know, actual earnings at at maybe a 20% CAGR over the next couple years.”
Open the episode · $NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued InterestListen at 41:22
Spotify EBIT margins could eventually reach 30%.
“beyond that, it could go to 30%.”
Open the episode · $NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued InterestListen at 41:51
Spotify could deliver 25–35% upside as its multiple rolls forward.
“you could see 25 to 35% upside easily.”
Open the episode · $NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued InterestListen at 42:49
CEOs generally receive too much credit and blame for company outcomes.
“I think CEOs are overrated.”
Open the episode · $NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued InterestListen at 44:32
Spotify faces fewer streaming competitors than five to ten years ago.
“they actually have a lot fewer streaming competitors. Than they used to.”
Open the episode · $NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued InterestListen at 46:44
Netflix is currently a value stock.
“I think Netflix is— it's a value stock”
Open the episode · $NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued InterestListen at 50:39
Netflix operating margins are in the low-to-mid 30s with a path to 40%.
“I think the operating margins at Netflix are in the low to mid-30s with a path to 40”
Open the episode · $NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued InterestListen at 51:42
Netflix is increasingly efficient at monetizing its content library.
“Netflix has gotten incredibly efficient in milking more and more out of the content library that they have.”
Open the episode · $NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued InterestListen at 52:07
Netflix can continue succeeding through an uncool, efficiency-focused strategy.
“Netflix can keep winning on that.”
Open the episode · $NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued InterestListen at 53:41
AI-generated content is not currently a major threat to Netflix.
“I'm actually way less concerned about AI content.”
Open the episode · $NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued InterestListen at 56:34
Actors and unions will seek compensation from AI-generated likenesses.
“the actors and actors unions and the guilds are going to step in to make sure that they get a piece of that”
Open the episode · $NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued InterestListen at 58:24
Netflix can continue taking substantial revenue share from linear television.
“Netflix still has the ability to take a whole lot of money away from television.”
Open the episode · $NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued InterestListen at 1:01:57
Netflix sports rights could support long-term growth through new advertising categories.
“if they can take sports, which they're showing that they can, they can live off that for a long time because it opens up to new ad categories”
Open the episode · $NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued InterestListen at 1:02:10
Spotify offers greater investment conviction than Netflix due to less competition.
“I have more conviction on Spotify because I think that they have a lot of the same financial metrics, same story with less competition.”
Open the episode · $NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued InterestListen at 1:03:51
Netflix could trade at roughly 30 times earnings in ten years.
“I wouldn't be surprised if 10 years from now Netflix is trading at 30 times”
Open the episode · $NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued InterestListen at 1:04:21
Netflix has substantially more strategic growth levers than Spotify.
“Netflix has a lot a lot more levers that they can pull”
Open the episode · $NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued InterestListen at 1:05:09
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
