Michael Frazis
Person
Michael Frazis is an Australian investor and the founder of Frazis Capital Partners, a Sydney-based investment firm focused on innovative companies. He is known for growth-oriented investing and for assessing risk in rapidly changing markets.
Works by Michael Frazis
- SASituational Awareness
creator · article
What Michael Frazis has said on podcasts
42 statements
AI infrastructure and semiconductor stocks are currently under pressure
“it seems like AI is under a bit of pressure”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 2:49
Software growth stocks have recently begun recovering
“it seems like there's been a bit of recovery in software”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 3:00
Extreme leverage eventually causes an investment strategy to fail
“there's no way you can run that kind of leverage without blowing up at some stage”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 5:17
Leveraging illiquid, lower-quality stocks increases strategy risk
“if you're levering into kind of junkier things, illiquid names”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 6:49
Triple-leveraged single-stock products are likely to eventually lose all value
“the ending of every single triple levered stock is probably zero”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 9:22
Reduced hyperscaler buybacks will make markets less stable
“no matter what it's going to be a much less stable environment going forward”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 10:22
Highly leveraged market participants will eventually be forced out
“heavily leveraged players will probably be cleaned out at some point”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 10:34
Hyperscalers will prioritize designing and using their own chips
“they're going to, over the next two to three years, it's going to be their primary strategy”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 11:39
Hyperscalers’ custom chips pose a long-term threat to NVIDIA
“long term, that is absolutely a threat to NVIDIA”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 12:02
Hyperscaler-designed chips will gain market share from NVIDIA
“they'll continue to take market share over the next two to three years”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 12:17
Locally runnable AI models will improve within six to twelve months
“in six to 12 months, these are going to be even better”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 13:44
Companies will increasingly run capable AI models on their own hardware
“they can just run on their own hardware”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 14:21
Local AI models could undermine major AI companies’ valuations and spending plans
“where does that leave the multi-trillion dollar valuations of these companies and their spending plans?”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 14:28
Apple benefited strategically by avoiding massive AI capital expenditure
“they played it perfectly”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 15:56
Apple can leverage competitors’ AI investment without matching their spending
“They can leapfrog on all the investment of everybody else.”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 16:00
Software companies maintaining 20–25% growth may outperform through year-end
“The ones that accelerate and are able to accelerate or even just maintain, you know, 20%, 25% growth are probably going to be really strong performers for the rest of the year”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 18:22
Xero is relatively vulnerable to disruption over the medium term
“they're probably on the more disruptable side”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 19:24
Cybersecurity companies are attractive growth investments
“Cybersecurity is obviously a pretty easy one.”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 19:54
Any hackable application or system will eventually be hacked
“Anything that can be hacked will be hacked.”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 20:12
AI has not yet produced mass unemployment
“you haven't seen mass unemployment”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 21:00
AI has not materially increased GDP growth apart from investment spending
“GDP growth hasn't really moved other than there's been this big boost in investment”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 21:10
Explosive growth and customer love remain the best growth-investing framework
“that is the best framework”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 22:46
NVIDIA sustained roughly 100% growth for three years before slowing
“Nvidia. So that one maintained 100% growth for basically three years and maybe 50, 60% this year.”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 24:18
Holding all 2021 growth-stock positions would not have produced comparable recovery
“if we held everything we owned in 2021 we wouldn't have recovered the way we did”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 25:18
Frazis Capital Partners now uses quantitative trend-following to select holdings
“Now we're very quant-based in terms of how we trade and what we actually own. So it's very much trend following.”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 25:43
Trend following can capture major gains while avoiding major crashes
“you capture the big trends, so you make a lot of money, and then you avoid the big crashes”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 26:09
The strategy typically trades each position one to three times annually
“most things we trade one to three times a year”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 26:49
Backtested NVIDIA trend following tripled returns and halved drawdown
“you have like tripled your return and cut your draw down in half”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 26:57
A four-times profit target historically produced the best returns
“4X gives you the best return”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 29:34
The strategy moved more than half its portfolio into cash three times
“three times in the last three and a half years, we've moved over 50% cash”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 30:07
ROAR focuses on semiconductors, software, and healthcare
“it's semiconductors, software and healthcare”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 30:48
Companies capable of two-to-four-times returns often grow 40–50% annually
“the company's growing at 40, 50%”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 31:29
Selling all expensive stocks would likely miss major market rallies
“if you sold everything that was expensive, you probably missed some of the bigger rallies”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 33:03
OpenAI is currently gaining market share
“OpenAI is taking share”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 36:15
AI models will become substantially more efficient within several years
“huge efficiencies that will come in the next couple of years”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 38:38
Local AI adoption could substantially alter cloud demand
“That could change it all.”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 38:45
GLP-1 medicines will continue expanding strongly
“the GLP ones, they're clearly just going to continue to power on”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 39:41
Prior melanoma trials reduced recurrence by approximately 50% and extended life
“it was reducing that recurrence by like 50%, extending life”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 40:51
Personalized cancer vaccines will be broadly rolled out and generate billions annually
“they'll roll it out they'll make billions of dollars a year probably out of it”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 42:26
Genetic profiling of tumors will likely become commonplace
“that will probably become commonplace now”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 43:09
Tempus AI will likely benefit substantially from personalized cancer treatment
“Tempest AI, which is probably going to be a big beneficiary”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 43:21
Daraxonrasib approximately doubles survivability in pancreatic cancer
“it's kind of extending life by doubling survivability”
Open the episode · Knowing when to sell: How growth investor Michael Frazis manages riskListen at 44:08
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
