Sep 18, 2026 · 8 min
Russia Tests NATO’s Eastern Flank Below the Threshold of War
European leaders say Russia is provoking NATO. How will the alliance respond?
The episode examines how NATO can deter covert provocations without misreading them as an attack that demands direct war.
- 1Russia may be using deniable actions to test NATO unity while avoiding an unmistakable act of war.
- 2Ambiguous provocations can expose disagreements among European governments, NATO members, and the Trump administration.
- 3Richard Haass urges stronger support for Ukraine, clear costs for provocations, and visible U.S. backing for Poland.
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Richard Haass explains why Russia may keep provocations ambiguous: to test NATO’s unity without triggering direct war.
The brief
Reports of alleged sabotage and a suspected explosive drone at Leipzig Airport raise a difficult question: when does a provocation become an attack under NATO’s Article 5?
Richard Haass argues that Vladimir Putin may be testing alliance unity, pressuring countries that support Ukraine while seeking gains without crossing into open war.
The episode’s central tension is ambiguity: deniable actions can demoralize NATO and expose divisions between European governments and the Trump administration.
Haass recommends stronger support for Ukraine and consequences for Russian provocations, while avoiding signals that NATO seeks a direct confrontation.
The closing focus is Poland, where Haass says visible U.S. backing and a reported permanent Army base could demonstrate Washington’s commitment to NATO.
Richard Nathan Haass
Mary Louise Kelly
Russian Federation
Ukraine
Vladimir Putin
Donald John Trump
Donald TuskListen to the full episode and explore every guest, topic, and moment on PodLume.