Oct 4, 2026 · 33 min
Portfolio losses test conviction in Axon, QXO and Hub24
Our Monthly Portfolio Update - September 2026
The hosts connect September’s market weakness to concrete portfolio decisions, showing how valuation, business quality and conviction shape action during volatility.
- 1René and Bryce compare monthly and year-to-date results across regional allocations, identifying healthcare, Asian technology and crypto as contrasting drivers.
- 2René adds Intuitive Surgical and Alphabet while assessing procedure growth, recurring revenue, artificial intelligence and Waymo’s autonomous-driving lead.
- 3Bryce sells QXO, holds Axon and considers Hub24, using conviction, growth prospects, competition and operating leverage to distinguish three responses to falling prices.
Don't miss
Bryce’s three-part framework turns falling share prices into contrasting decisions on QXO, Axon and Hub24.
The brief
Bryce Leske and René review a difficult September for global markets, comparing monthly and year-to-date portfolio results across core and satellite holdings.
Their performance discussion highlights regional exposure and contrasting winners: healthcare, TSMC, Asian technology and crypto helped, while emerging-market super-app investments weighed on returns.
René explains additions to Intuitive Surgical and Alphabet, linking procedure growth, recurring consumables revenue, artificial intelligence and Waymo’s scale to the investment case.
The hosts question whether sports-team ETFs are investments or disguised gambling, placing them within a broader critique of expanding sports betting in the United States.
Bryce’s buy, hold or sell framework produces three distinct calls: sell QXO, hold Axon through volatility and consider Hub24 after its sharp decline.
The standout tension is Axon: weaker margins, political controversy and privacy concerns compete with fast revenue growth, sticky software and expanding artificial-intelligence tools.
What was said on this episode
33 statements · 23 positive · 4 negative · 3 mixed · 3 neutral
Healthcare companies have strong competitive moats.
“I love the healthcare space. I think these guys have such a strong moat.”
Listen at 0:09
Alphabet is the only vertically integrated AI play.
“Another reason why Alphabet is just dominant. Waymo, YouTube, Search, Cloud. The only vertically integrated AI play.”
Listen at 0:18
Major equity indexes and gold fell, while Bitcoin rose, during the month.
“the ASX 200 was down 4% for the month, S&P 500 flat, down 0.02%. The FTSE 100 over in London down 1.5% and the Stoxx 600 down 2%. The Hang Seng down 4%. The CSI 300 down 6%. The Nikkei 225 down 1.3%. Bitcoin though up 7.6%. Gold was down 5.8%.”
Listen at 3:29
René remains confident in his TransMedics investment thesis and is holding.
“TransMedics is still down, down 35%, but I'm still confident in my thesis there. So holding.”
Listen at 6:36
Higher procedure volumes generate more recurring consumables revenue for Intuitive Surgical.
“growth in procedures means more recurring revenue that comes from the consumables that are attached to all of these pieces of equipment.”
Listen at 10:01
René views Intuitive Surgical’s lower share price as an opportunity to build his position.
“It has come off and given the environment we're in, that's of no surprise. But I'm taking it as an opportunity to slowly build up the position over time.”
Listen at 11:08
Intuitive Surgical has a strong moat, supporting continued buying after its decline.
“these guys have such a strong moat. You know, when a company is off 30, 40%, you still believe in the thesis. I'm going to take that opportunity.”
Listen at 11:24
Waymo provides over 500,000 paid rides and travels over 6.4 million kilometres weekly.
“Waymos now travel more than 6.4 million kilometres each week and provide more than 500,000 paid rides.”
Listen at 12:09
Alphabet is dominant because of Waymo and its other businesses.
“Another reason why Alphabet is just dominant.”
Listen at 12:32
Alphabet is the only vertically integrated AI investment opportunity.
“the only vertically integrated AI play.”
Listen at 12:39
Waymo was valued at $126 billion, while Google was valued at $4.2 trillion.
“Waymo recently did a funding round and was valued at $126 billion, but Google is $4.2 trillion.”
Listen at 13:07
Alphabet is currently trading at approximately 17 times earnings.
“Google or Alphabet currently trading on a 17 times PE.”
Listen at 13:30
LeagueShares ETFs would hold cash-settled futures tied to team performance.
“exclusively buy and hold cash-settled futures contracts tied to the specific team's performance.”
Listen at 15:35
In America, investing and gambling have become indistinguishable.
“the distinction between investing and gambling is just nonexistent in America.”
Listen at 16:11
NFL teams will probably eventually receive similar ETFs.
“NFL will probably get in there at some stage.”
Listen at 16:40
Brad Jacobs is regarded as an exceptional founder who created $8 billion businesses.
“Brad Jacobs, I think we've called him the world's best founder. He's created $8 billion businesses.”
Listen at 18:03
Bryce sold his QXO position due to insufficient conviction.
“So I sold.”
Listen at 19:49
Axon’s evidence.com platform becomes highly sticky for police departments.
“it becomes just so sticky.”
Listen at 20:18
Axon has a strong competitive moat.
“So it's just like it has a strong moat.”
Listen at 20:54
Flock cameras increased police clearance rates but created major civil-liberty and privacy concerns.
“it has had a massive increase in police clearance rates, but it has also had massive civic and privacy, like civil liberty and privacy implications.”
Listen at 22:21
Axon’s Q2 2026 revenue rose 35%, its tenth consecutive quarter above 30% growth.
“Q2 2026 revenue was up 35%. Yeah. 10th consecutive quarter of revenue above 30%”
Listen at 22:56
Axon’s net revenue retention was 126%.
“Net revenue retention was 126%.”
Listen at 23:12
Axon had a 3% profit margin, with $29 million profit on $904 million revenue.
“3% profit margin. That's tight. $29 million profit on $904 million revenue.”
Listen at 23:45
Bryce is holding Axon but will not increase his position after its decline.
“I'm holding it, but I'm not doubling down on the recent fall.”
Listen at 24:16
Axon’s DraftOne AI saved police departments approximately 70% of paperwork time.
“it was saving police departments like 70% of time on paperwork.”
Listen at 24:50
Axon remains founder-led, with Rick Smith owning approximately 3.5%.
“it's a founder-led business. Rick Smith, the founder, still, he owns like 3.5% of them, but it's like he owns $1 billion worth of the stock still.”
Listen at 25:08
Hub24 and Netwealth have fallen 45% and 55% from their highs, respectively.
“Hub24 is down 45% from its highs. Netwealth is down 55% from its highs.”
Listen at 25:41
Mandatory superannuation contributions provide a stable cash flow for wealth platforms.
“12% of people's pay going to super, going to these platforms. Cash cow. Cash cow. That's not changing.”
Listen at 27:23
Hub24 led inflows for ten quarters and increased market share to 9.9%.
“The past 10 consecutive quarters, HUB24 was first for inflows. It's increased its market share to 9.9% from 8.6%.”
Listen at 27:54
Hub24 is used by 37% of Australian financial advisors, up from 21% in 2022.
“37% of Australian financial advisors now use HUB24. That's up from 21% in June 2022.”
Listen at 28:13
Hub24 funds under administration reached $139.5 billion, up 24% year over year.
“Funds under administration reached $139.5 billion, up 24% year on year.”
Listen at 28:27
Bryce expects Hub24’s growth story to continue and considers it a future buy.
“for me, I don't think it stops. So at some point this becomes a buy.”
Listen at 29:23
Hub24 trades near 40 times earnings and may grow into that valuation; Bryce may buy.
“for me it's trading at about 40 times earnings now. You expect if it keeps growing the way it does, it can grow into that valuation. I probably will take a small position”
Listen at 31:12
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
Featuring
Mentioned
Alphabet Inc.
Waymo
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