Aug 23, 2026 · 29 min
Moderna’s melanoma vaccine tests biotech optimism
Moderna’s skin cancer breakthrough, a cheap stock for the Community Portfolio & can you time your investments?
The episode connects early cancer-vaccine results and AI-driven drug discovery with the harder questions of clinical proof, portfolio construction, and timing investments.
- 1Moderna and Merck’s experimental mRNA vaccine showed promising early results against melanoma recurrence when paired with Keytruda.
- 2AI may accelerate drug discovery, but late-stage trials and regulatory approval remain major bottlenecks for healthcare investors.
- 3Scorpio Tankers stayed on the watch list as the hosts balanced improving fundamentals against cyclical shipping risks and uncertain entry points.
Don't miss
The hosts explain why promising melanoma-vaccine data can matter for patients and investors without yet proving Moderna’s broader cancer-treatment case.
The brief
Moderna and Merck’s experimental mRNA vaccine, used with Keytruda, produced promising early evidence that melanoma recurrence could fall—though detailed clinical results remain essential.
The hosts treat the result as both a patient breakthrough and an investing signal, while warning that share-price excitement, short interest, and headlines can outrun the science.
AI and AlphaFold could speed drug discovery, but the discussion stresses that late-stage trials and regulatory approval still determine whether scientific promise becomes a viable business.
The Community Portfolio sits modestly ahead of its DHHF benchmark year to date, while Scorpio Tankers offers improving fundamentals but remains exposed to cyclical shipping rates.
The hosts leave Scorpio Tankers on the watch list and argue that buying around earnings should follow conviction, portfolio fit, position sizing, and thesis validation—not a quest for perfect timing.
What was said on this episode
25 statements · 16 positive · 6 negative · 2 mixed · 1 neutral
Moderna has made substantial progress against cancer but has not cured it.
“Moderna certainly didn't cure cancer, but it has taken a big whack at it, I think.”
Listen at 0:07
Moderna and Merck unveiled an mRNA vaccine that reduces melanoma spread.
“Moderna. and Merck unveiled an mRNA-based cancer vaccine that cuts the spread of melanoma.”
Listen at 2:41
Moderna shares rose 177% in one day after the announcement.
“Shares jumped 177% in a day.”
Listen at 2:52
Moderna remains 60% below its all-time high despite its recent gain.
“Even after its 177% gain, it's still down 60% from its all-time highs.”
Listen at 3:17
Intismarin trains immune systems to target tumor mutations.
“It's an experimental vaccine that trains the patient's immune system to fight tumors by targeting mutations in cancer cells.”
Listen at 3:53
Moderna short interest was approximately 13.5% of free float.
“short interest in Moderna's shares was about 13.5% of shares on issue, of free float.”
Listen at 4:43
High-risk melanoma patients could benefit as early as next year if approved.
“could start benefiting from this as early as next year if regulators approve it”
Listen at 6:05
Healthcare is entering a golden age driven by technology and AI.
“we're definitely going into a golden age of... healthcare”
Listen at 6:51
AI-enabled drug discovery and genomic analysis will produce major breakthroughs.
“There is some incredible breakthroughs coming.”
Listen at 8:03
Late-stage clinical trials remain costly, burdensome, and regulatory-intensive.
“late stage clinical trials is still an incredibly burdensome and costly and regulatory, regulatorily intensive choke point.”
Listen at 8:53
Large pharmaceutical companies will ultimately prevail at regulatory bottlenecks.
“that's where the big pharmaceutical companies are still going to ultimately win. Come out on top.”
Listen at 9:31
The community portfolio is up 8.2% year to date.
“Our portfolio is up 8.2% year to date.”
Listen at 10:45
Scorpio Tankers has traded at a single-digit P/E with strong dividends.
“It's been always on single-digit PE with really good dividends.”
Listen at 14:30
Scorpio Tankers currently trades at five times earnings.
“It currently trades on a five price to earnings.”
Listen at 15:26
Scorpio Tankers has $1.3 billion in net cash.
“It has 1.3 billion net cash on its balance sheet”
Listen at 15:29
Oil tanker prices are currently near a cyclical peak.
“right now we're kind of peak cycle for oil tanker prices.”
Listen at 17:03
Scorpio Tankers’ P/E could rise from five to 15 if shipping rates normalize.
“a five times price to earnings shipping stock can become a 15 times price to earnings shipping stock very quickly if rates sort of move down back to more normal levels.”
Listen at 18:15
Scorpio Tankers should not be added to the community portfolio now.
“I don't think we put it in the portfolio”
Listen at 19:22
Investors should buy a researched stock when it fits their portfolio and thesis.
“If those two things are a yes, then I don't really wait around, to be honest.”
Listen at 22:13
Investors should not delay buying a favored stock that beats available alternatives.
“if you find a stock, if you like it, if it ticks those boxes that prices were talking about, you know, like it's better than what other options you have available. don't wait”
Listen at 23:20
Investors can stagger purchases around earnings and add if results validate their thesis.
“if you're worried about what earnings might do just put a bid in wait for the announcement analyze the results check your thesis if it all plays out continue to invest”
Listen at 23:37
Consistent purchases at different prices can build disciplined investing habits.
“i'm trying to build the habit of consistently buying the same stocks at different price points at different times if i still like them”
Listen at 24:20
A thesis invalidated by a 10–20% price rise is probably insufficiently robust.
“if your thesis no longer holds after the stock jumps 10% or 20%, it's probably not a good enough thesis.”
Listen at 27:07
Company valuations are ranges rather than exact point estimates.
“Every valuation is a range. Anyone who says that there is an exact value for a particular company at a particular time is being falsely precise.”
Listen at 27:20
Investors should keep buying favored stocks before, after, or during earnings.
“by before earnings, by after earnings, by during earnings, find stocks you love and keep buying.”
Listen at 27:38
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
Featuring
KeytrudaListen to the full episode and explore every guest, topic, and moment on PodLume.