Aug 9, 2026 · 33 min
AI stocks rebound as markets confront leverage and macro risks
We're back: AI selloff reverses, US earnings, Aussie property & more
The recap tests whether investors can separate durable earnings and infrastructure spending from fragile valuations, economic weakness, and market-timing temptation.
- 1AI-related stocks reversed sharply as stretched valuations, tight share floats, and leverage amplified market moves.
- 2Strong technology, industrial, banking, and energy earnings contrasted with inflation, weak confidence, and geopolitical uncertainty.
- 3Falling Australian property prices and uncertain rates reinforce the case for diversification rather than trading through volatility.
Don't miss
The discussion of Leopold Aschenbrenner’s fund collapse turns abstract warnings about AI valuations and leverage into a concrete market lesson.
The brief
After a five-week break, Bryce and Alec return to a market that reached record highs, then retrace the AI trade amid valuation concerns and heavy leverage.
The AI sell-off exposed how tight share floats, ambitious earnings expectations, and borrowed money can turn a reversal into a broader shock; Leopold Aschenbrenner’s fund collapse sharpens the warning.
The hosts find a more durable counterpoint in continued data-center spending and strong results across major technology companies, while Caterpillar, banks, energy, and other firms broaden the earnings story.
The macro backdrop is less reassuring: Iran-related uncertainty, oil prices, persistent inflation, weak consumer confidence, and a widening gap between markets and the economy complicate the rally.
Australia adds its own pressure point as Sydney and Melbourne property prices fall, rate decisions remain uncertain, and affordability worsens despite rising electric-vehicle and hybrid sales.
The conclusion is deliberately unglamorous: market timing is difficult, so diversification and staying invested beat repeated attempts to trade in and out of volatility.
What was said on this episode
35 statements · 20 positive · 15 negative
Housing prices should fall further for affordability to improve
“if we actually want housing affordability to be a thing, we should expect further falls”
Listen at 0:18
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index entered a technical bear market
“the socks fell more than 20%, fell into a technical bear market”
Listen at 5:19
SpaceX fell about 40% from its post-IPO high to $108
“it is now as low as $108. And so that's down about 40% since it's post IPO high”
Listen at 5:49
Starlink will become one of the best businesses of the hosts’ lifetime
“Starlink is going to be one of the best businesses of our lifetime.”
Listen at 6:42
SpaceX’s trading valuation was economically unjustified
“the economics of what it was trading at didn't make sense”
Listen at 6:45
SpaceX’s share price will decline further
“I think it has further to fall.”
Listen at 7:18
Oracle is the clearest warning sign of AI-market jitters
“the biggest canary in the coal mine of AI jitters, shall we call it, is Oracle”
Listen at 7:36
The market has no confidence in Oracle
“we have no confidence in oracle”
Listen at 8:41
Leopold Aschenbrenner’s leveraged fund was closed after a margin call
“he got margin called and uh he had to effectively closed the fund”
Listen at 9:44
AI model intelligence continues developing rapidly without slowing
“The pace of intelligence development continues unabated.”
Listen at 13:43
AI companies will keep spending until one achieves AGI
“whoever wins that, they're just going to keep spending, keep spending until one of them comes out and cracks it”
Listen at 13:49
Eighty-six percent of companies are beating earnings estimates
“86% of companies are beating estimates”
Listen at 15:00
S&P 500 earnings are on track to grow 47%
“The S&P 500 is on track for 47% earnings growth.”
Listen at 15:06
Alphabet revenue grew 24% to nearly $120 billion
“Revenue grew 24% to just under $120 billion.”
Listen at 16:17
Microsoft Azure revenue increased 43%
“Microsoft, it's Azure business, their cloud business up 43%.”
Listen at 17:10
Amazon AWS grew 37%, its fastest rate in 18 quarters
“AWS growing 37%, its fastest rate in 18 quarters.”
Listen at 17:28
Apple revenue rose 16% and earnings per share rose 29%
“Revenue up 16%, earnings per share up 29%.”
Listen at 18:10
SpaceX investors want the company to become profitable
“What you want to see if you're a SpaceX investor is the company get to profitability.”
Listen at 19:42
SpaceX shares sold off because of increased AI spending
“SpaceX sold off after its results. The reason was the AI spending.”
Listen at 20:15
Caterpillar reported record quarterly revenue of $20.5 billion, up 24%
“It had a record quarter of $20.5 billion in revenue. That's up 24%.”
Listen at 21:55
GE Vernova orders rose 88% to $24 billion
“orders rose 88% to $24 billion”
Listen at 22:14
Mercado Libre achieved at least 30% revenue growth for its thirtieth consecutive quarter
“It had its 30th consecutive quarter of 30% or more revenue growth.”
Listen at 22:38
Palantir second-quarter revenue increased 93% year over year
“Palantir, second quarter revenue is up 93% year on year.”
Listen at 22:55
IBM shares fell over 20% as mainframe revenue dropped 42%
“Shares have fallen more than 20%. Mainframe revenue has dropped 42% year on year.”
Listen at 23:27
AMD reported record revenue of $11.5 billion, up 50% year over year
“AMD reported record revenue $11.5 billion, up 50% year on year.”
Listen at 23:40
All five major US banks beat analyst expectations
“All five major US banks beat analyst expectations.”
Listen at 24:08
Exxon reported four-year-high quarterly profit of $14.5 billion, more than doubling year-on-year
“Exxon reported its highest quarterly profit in four years, $14.5 billion, more than double its quarterly profit, same time last year.”
Listen at 24:44
US consumer confidence is low
“Consumer confidence is low.”
Listen at 28:15
Persistently weak economic activity and consumer spending will hurt share markets
“if the economy stays this week and consumer spending stays this week, the share market will be impacted”
Listen at 28:33
Sydney and Melbourne house-price declines are accelerating
“The rate of house prices falling in Sydney and Melbourne particularly is increasing.”
Listen at 29:31
Australian national property prices had their largest monthly fall since 2022
“national property prices had their biggest monthly fall since 2022 in July”
Listen at 30:16
Trying to time the market is consistently a losing strategy
“trying to time the... market at the moment is a fool's game. It's always a fool's game.”
Listen at 31:32
The market continues to trend upward
“the market continues to grind higher”
Listen at 31:48
Investors should diversify their portfolios
“Just be diversified.”
Listen at 32:09
Investors should keep investing and avoid market timing
“Keep investing. Enjoy the ride. Don't try and time the market.”
Listen at 32:13
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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