Sep 6, 2026 · 23 min
AI spending and super funds face a closer investor test
Why AI, Energy & Housing are the biggest themes for the rest of the year & are all Super funds really the same?
The episode connects the durability of the AI investment boom with the practical differences that can materially shape superannuation outcomes over time.
- 1AI’s next phase depends on whether hyperscaler spending converts into durable cloud, lab, and enterprise demand.
- 2Global indexes can mask concentration in US technology, while Australian investors face a case for more selective exposures.
- 3Super funds differ through long-term performance, fees, insurance, and investment options—not merely their headline category.
Don't miss
Tom Wickenden explains why strong global equity performance can conceal heavy dependence on US technology and AI-related returns.
The brief
Tom Wickenden of BetaShares frames the second half of 2026 around a central question: can hyperscaler capital expenditure keep expanding without stronger evidence of durable demand?
The AI trade extends beyond chipmakers, spanning cloud backlogs, AI labs, and enterprise adoption; its sustainability depends on whether spending produces lasting economic value.
Geopolitical risk complicates the market picture, but global indexes can still rise because US technology and AI-related companies dominate their returns and composition.
For Australian investors, the discussion shifts to property, rates, commodities, and factor exposures such as quality, value, and high yield rather than the headline ASX index.
The Super September segment challenges the idea that all super funds are alike, pointing to differences in fees, insurance, investment options, and long-term performance.
What was said on this episode
27 statements · 14 positive · 9 negative · 1 mixed · 3 neutral
US hyperscalers will spend trillions next year, creating history’s largest capital-expenditure cycle.
“the hyperscales are still very keen and intent on spending money and even more money to the trillions next year, which is the biggest CapEx cycle in history”
Listen at 0:07
Hyperscaler capital spending will continue for the foreseeable future.
“The answer remains yes.”
Listen at 3:33
Rising cloud revenue and margins may indicate hyperscalers’ path to profitability.
“This is a strong indication of potentially their path to profitability.”
Listen at 3:55
Open-source models will compete heavily with frontier AI models.
“we do think that a lot of the open source models will compete quite heavily with these frontier models”
Listen at 5:19
The AI model layer could become commoditized.
“that model layer could become the commoditized layer”
Listen at 5:26
Hyperscalers are more attractive than the AI model layer.
“That's why we can be bullish on the hyperscalers, but maybe not as bullish on the model layer.”
Listen at 5:35
Enterprise and consumer cloud demand will continue growing.
“That is only a portion of the total, so we're hoping that layer continues to grow.”
Listen at 6:40
Open-source model adoption will remain positive for cloud backlogs because it uses compute.
“Now, that still uses compute. So that's still positive for the cloud backlogs.”
Listen at 7:02
Defense remains a favorable long-term structural investment trend.
“we still see that as a good long-term structural investment trend”
Listen at 9:31
Nuclear energy and uranium are favorable longer-term investments amid geopolitical tensions.
“things like nuclear energy and the use of uranium in that being a good longer-term structural investment for these geopolitical tensions”
Listen at 9:51
The MSCI All World Index’s performance is being driven by the global technology boom.
“a lot of what's under the hood of the MISCI All World is being driven by that global tech boom”
Listen at 10:20
Materials and financials drive over 60% of Australian broad-index returns.
“what really matters to the broad index returns, it's still materials and financials, like drives our market. It's over 60%.”
Listen at 11:44
Gold and copper are driving a boom in Australia’s materials sector.
“The Australian material sector is booming, and that's because of gold and copper.”
Listen at 12:24
Copper’s role in energy, AI, and defense supports Australia’s market outlook.
“if we still see the central importance of copper in the energy transition, the AI rollout, and also future defense tech, that is a positive story for the Australian market at the headline level”
Listen at 12:52
Australian financials are currently struggling.
“financials are a bit of a struggle”
Listen at 13:08
BetaShares’ QOZ ETF outperformed the ASX 200 by over 12% last year.
“The Australian value ETF, we have QOZ outperformed the ASX 200 by over 12% last year.”
Listen at 14:17
Factor ETFs can improve investors’ outcomes in the Australian market.
“using things like factor ETFs in particular, we think can be a really strong way to get more out of the Australian market”
Listen at 14:48
The top 24 Australian super funds control 96% of the industry.
“The top 24 funds account for 96% of the entire industry.”
Listen at 16:38
Australian super funds’ investment strategies have converged.
“investment strategy has certainly converged”
Listen at 17:31
Passing the super performance test does not indicate fund quality.
“passing the test is actually a flaw. It's not actually an indicator of quality”
Listen at 18:13
A fund can trail its benchmark by 0.49% annually and still pass the test.
“your fund could be 0.49% behind your own benchmark every single year and you could still pass the test”
Listen at 18:37
Trailing a benchmark by 0.49% annually can reduce wealth over 30 years by over 13.5%.
“0.49%. over 30 years is actually over 13.5% less money than if you were actually just the benchmark”
Listen at 18:47
The Your Super comparison tool does not compare insurance offerings.
“Your super tool doesn't compare insurance offerings.”
Listen at 19:17
Investors should not choose super funds by chasing last year’s performance.
“what we're not saying here is chase last year's performance. That is the absolute wrong way to invest your super”
Listen at 20:26
Investors should evaluate super funds using long-term performance.
“The first thing we would say is look at long-term performance.”
Listen at 20:48
Investors with decades until retirement should choose growth or high-growth super options.
“If you've got decades ahead of you, you want to be invested in growth or high growth.”
Listen at 21:09
Investors should ensure they are not in an underperforming super fund.
“Make sure that you're not in an underperforming super fund.”
Listen at 22:02
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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