Alejandro Yela
Person
Alejandro Yela is a private-assets and small-cap investor who has focused on investing since 2014. He writes The Hermit, an investment publication covering market ideas, gains and losses, and related research.
What Alejandro Yela has said on podcasts
28 statements
Investors need sector specialization to make sound decisions and build conviction.
“when it comes to making decisions and building conviction, you need to become a specialist”
Open the episode · A Decade of Oil and Gas Investing in One Hour | Alejandro YelaListen at 6:39
Proven reserves are more reliable than probable or possible reserves.
“1P reserves are 90% guaranteed, 2P reserves are 50% guaranteed, and 3P reserves are almost never there.”
Open the episode · A Decade of Oil and Gas Investing in One Hour | Alejandro YelaListen at 8:18
A company’s value can be estimated from discounted 1P reserves per share.
“What you do is you take 1P reserves and you divide that by the number of shares, and that is the actual value of the company.”
Open the episode · A Decade of Oil and Gas Investing in One Hour | Alejandro YelaListen at 8:29
Low-cost oil producers can gain market share when higher-cost competitors go bankrupt.
“if you can produce at 40 and this thing is priced at 50, for example, and the oil is priced at 50, there's a lot of your competitors, your poor competitors who will go bankrupt.”
Open the episode · A Decade of Oil and Gas Investing in One Hour | Alejandro YelaListen at 11:45
Midstream pipeline businesses are largely insulated from commodity price movements.
“when you get to midstream, it's already irrelevant because you are a toll booth.”
Open the episode · A Decade of Oil and Gas Investing in One Hour | Alejandro YelaListen at 14:14
Midstream businesses command higher valuations because their cash flows are more predictable.
“It definitely carries a higher valuation because it's much more predictable.”
Open the episode · A Decade of Oil and Gas Investing in One Hour | Alejandro YelaListen at 14:45
Brazil has a history of expropriating oil infrastructure assets.
“In fact, Brazil is very famous for doing this.”
Open the episode · A Decade of Oil and Gas Investing in One Hour | Alejandro YelaListen at 16:22
Investors seeking Canadian oil opportunities should search for reserve assets.
“Search for reserves. That's basically it.”
Open the episode · A Decade of Oil and Gas Investing in One Hour | Alejandro YelaListen at 17:34
Computer Modeling Group has no real competitor in complex reservoir modeling.
“there's really no competitor when it comes to the complex side of things.”
Open the episode · A Decade of Oil and Gas Investing in One Hour | Alejandro YelaListen at 21:20
AI currently threatens Computer Modeling Group’s base software business.
“the base software right now is being threatened by AI.”
Open the episode · A Decade of Oil and Gas Investing in One Hour | Alejandro YelaListen at 22:38
AI commoditizes reservoir-modeling software pricing.
“the price of all of these softwares becomes a commodity again”
Open the episode · A Decade of Oil and Gas Investing in One Hour | Alejandro YelaListen at 24:21
Alejandro considers Computer Modeling Group undervalued.
“I think it's undervalued, obviously, otherwise I wouldn't have bought it”
Open the episode · A Decade of Oil and Gas Investing in One Hour | Alejandro YelaListen at 25:33
Alejandro targets a dynamic 15% free-cash-flow yield for investments.
“I have a threshold of a dynamic, very important word, dynamic 15% free cash flow yield.”
Open the episode · A Decade of Oil and Gas Investing in One Hour | Alejandro YelaListen at 26:23
Computer Modeling Group’s price could rise approximately 50% to reach present value.
“they would still need to climb about 50% from the current price approximately.”
Open the episode · A Decade of Oil and Gas Investing in One Hour | Alejandro YelaListen at 27:04
Computer Modeling Group has effectively no risk of becoming worthless.
“the risk of it going to zero is nonexistent in my opinion.”
Open the episode · A Decade of Oil and Gas Investing in One Hour | Alejandro YelaListen at 28:54
Continued share repurchases should increase Computer Modeling Group’s valuation.
“If they keep doing that, it's inevitable for them to be valued at a higher valuation than they are.”
Open the episode · A Decade of Oil and Gas Investing in One Hour | Alejandro YelaListen at 29:10
LNG Canada project timelines and deadlines are unpredictable.
“Their timelines and deadlines are just, uh, they're not predictable.”
Open the episode · A Decade of Oil and Gas Investing in One Hour | Alejandro YelaListen at 30:34
Canadian LNG export projects give gas producers more market options and pricing power.
“with these projects, that is no longer the case because you have more options.”
Open the episode · A Decade of Oil and Gas Investing in One Hour | Alejandro YelaListen at 32:24
Floating liquefaction vessels can accelerate LNG export development.
“you accelerate everything.”
Open the episode · A Decade of Oil and Gas Investing in One Hour | Alejandro YelaListen at 33:52
Investors should currently avoid Canadian oil companies.
“In Canada, I don't think you should buy anything in Canada at the moment.”
Open the episode · A Decade of Oil and Gas Investing in One Hour | Alejandro YelaListen at 35:12
OMS Energy has approximately $40 million enterprise value and $154 million cash, with no debt.
“their enterprise value is currently about $40 million and they have $154 million in cash with no debt.”
Open the episode · A Decade of Oil and Gas Investing in One Hour | Alejandro YelaListen at 36:21
Investors can identify oil producers likely to survive commodity cycles.
“you can probably predict the people who survive those cycles.”
Open the episode · A Decade of Oil and Gas Investing in One Hour | Alejandro YelaListen at 39:37
Companies unable to withstand a decade-long war may become irrelevant and dilute shareholders.
“they become irrelevant. They will be diluted and they will probably kill every shareholder in terms of like money-wise”
Open the episode · A Decade of Oil and Gas Investing in One Hour | Alejandro YelaListen at 41:32
Northern South American production could replace supply lost during prolonged conflict.
“the missing supply will effectively be supplied by the north part of South America.”
Open the episode · A Decade of Oil and Gas Investing in One Hour | Alejandro YelaListen at 41:55
The coffee business plans to reduce costs by approximately 10–20%.
“we're planning on executing effectively a cost reduction of about 10 to 20% through our own cost reduction.”
Open the episode · A Decade of Oil and Gas Investing in One Hour | Alejandro YelaListen at 45:28
Private-business returns are primarily created through long-term operational plans.
“the actual money is made long-term through a plan.”
Open the episode · A Decade of Oil and Gas Investing in One Hour | Alejandro YelaListen at 48:39
Many private-equity groups rely on leverage, margin extraction, and perceived-value increases.
“What they, what these groups do in general has more to do with levering things up, you know, squeezing margins, you know, increasing the perceived value.”
Open the episode · A Decade of Oil and Gas Investing in One Hour | Alejandro YelaListen at 48:42
Palantir’s proprietary information access creates a substantial competitive moat.
“The information these guys have access to creates a massive, massive moat.”
Open the episode · A Decade of Oil and Gas Investing in One Hour | Alejandro YelaListen at 52:04
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
