Adam Buckstein
Person
Adam Buckstein is a portfolio manager at ASB Partners, LP, an investment firm. He is known for developing and discussing investment theses, including research on Stride and El Al.
What Adam Buckstein has said on podcasts
21 statements
El Al currently holds a near-monopoly position on transatlantic flights from Israel.
“El Al has found itself in this basically monopoly position on the transatlantic flight.”
Open the episode · $ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB PartnersListen at 4:54
El Al is a high-quality asset likely to remain operating for decades.
“I think it's a very high quality asset type of thing that's going to be around 30 years from now.”
Open the episode · $ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB PartnersListen at 5:26
El Al used three years of windfall profits to substantially deleverage its balance sheet.
“they've been able to just have three years of windfall profits that they've totally delevered the balance sheet.”
Open the episode · $ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB PartnersListen at 7:24
Turkish Airlines and Pegasus have exited the market and will not return.
“Turkish Airways and Pegasus, which were top five carriers, they totally left the market. They're not coming back.”
Open the episode · $ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB PartnersListen at 8:46
El Al retains significant net cash even excluding air traffic liabilities.
“they still have a significant net cash position on their balance sheet.”
Open the episode · $ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB PartnersListen at 12:38
Even under normalized earnings, El Al could have $2 billion EV and $150–200 million free cash flow.
“worst case scenario, you know, let's say they go back to that, like you're looking at a two billion dollar EV and normalize, you know, at least 150 to 200 million free cash flow.”
Open the episode · $ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB PartnersListen at 14:14
Owning more aircraft should justify a higher airline valuation multiple when leasing is expensive.
“the more planes you own in this environment, given how expensive leasing is, the higher your multiple should be.”
Open the episode · $ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB PartnersListen at 15:59
El Al can operate under all circumstances and benefits from implicit government backing.
“they've proven that like they can fly under all circumstances and they have an implicit backstop of the government”
Open the episode · $ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB PartnersListen at 16:19
El Al will eventually face full competition in its market.
“there's going to be full competition someday, like full stop.”
Open the episode · $ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB PartnersListen at 18:59
El Al likely has at least two more quarters of windfall profits.
“you have a few more, at least, you know, two more quarters of like just gushing windfall profits”
Open the episode · $ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB PartnersListen at 19:28
Israel is relatively capitalistic despite being a foreign investment jurisdiction.
“I think Israel is relatively, you know, capitalistic, insane.”
Open the episode · $ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB PartnersListen at 21:43
The Israeli government shares El Al’s costs for mandated additional security.
“the government, you know, like, they basically share the cost for that extra security.”
Open the episode · $ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB PartnersListen at 23:43
Aircraft leasing appears economically inferior to ownership for El Al.
“it seems very clear that leasing is not the optimal”
Open the episode · $ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB PartnersListen at 28:28
James Ryu increased Stride EPS from under $1 to more than $8 during his tenure.
“under his watch, he had grown EPS from like less than a dollar a share to like, I think they did over $8 this year.”
Open the episode · $ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB PartnersListen at 32:53
Stride operates in a growing market and generates substantial cash flow.
“this is a secular grower, an expanding marketplace, generates a lot of cash flow.”
Open the episode · $ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB PartnersListen at 35:06
The virtual public-school market underlying Stride remains healthy.
“I feel strongly that you know the market is healthy”
Open the episode · $ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB PartnersListen at 39:30
Stride will re-enroll most Lone Star Academy students in its other Texas schools.
“I'm very very confident that they're going to be able to enroll a large percentage of those students in the other schools that they have in Texas.”
Open the episode · $ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB PartnersListen at 39:40
Stride is more likely than not to retain students affected by the Texas school closure.
“I just think that speaks to like my, you know, I think that's more likely than not that they're going to be able to retain those students.”
Open the episode · $ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB PartnersListen at 40:29
AI software alone cannot replace Stride’s full online-school operating model.
“there's no way that like someone's going to just let, you know, a piece of like AI software come in and like run this thing.”
Open the episode · $ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB PartnersListen at 45:28
Political risk for Stride has materially declined since COVID-19.
“the political risk has actually been dramatically reduced like post-covid”
Open the episode · $ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB PartnersListen at 47:35
Online schooling has shifted from a nice-to-have to a must-have after COVID-19.
“this used to be like a nice have now it's a must-have”
Open the episode · $ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB PartnersListen at 47:39
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
