Jul 27, 2026 · 1h 29m
Victorian political friction and global tech shifts spark economic warnings
AI Bubble, Waymo Ditches Uber, Jacinta Allan’s Disaster, KPMG Scandal and Jim Chalmers’ Crashes Housing in All the Wrong Places
This episode connects local Australian policy failures with global tech disruptions, showing how political decisions and market shifts impact broader economic stability.
- 1Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan faces mounting pressure as economic challenges and rising unemployment strain the state.
- 2Waymo's strategic split from Uber's network marks a critical test of whether proprietary tech outvalues established distribution.
- 3Government-backed low-deposit home loans are introducing significant systemic risk into a cooling Australian property market.
Don't miss
An analysis of Waymo's high-stakes decision to exit its partnership with Uber to launch a standalone autonomous ride-hailing app.
The brief
Hosts Adam Schwab and Adir Shiffman analyze the deepening economic and political challenges in Victoria, arguing that Premier Jacinta Allan faces severe internal party friction and a deteriorating state budget.
The hosts critique the state's rising unemployment and controversial work-from-home mandates, warning that current policy decisions are alienating the business community and driving economic underperformance.
Beyond local politics, the discussion shifts to global tech, examining whether specialized AI chip startup Etched can challenge Nvidia, and analyzing Waymo's high-stakes decision to split from Uber's network.
The episode concludes with a warning on the Australian housing market, arguing that low-deposit, government-backed home loans are creating dangerous systemic risks in a falling market.
What was said on this episode
43 statements · 13 positive · 27 negative · 3 neutral
Burnley Tunnel moving lights cause drivers to maintain higher speeds.
“I think those lights do work.”
Listen at 2:05
Ed Husic wants to bring down the Albanese government.
“I think he would like to bring Albanese down.”
Listen at 6:12
Jacinta Allan’s downfall is expected within 24 hours.
“The papers are saying that's going to happen next 24 hours.”
Listen at 8:58
Victoria’s $35 billion Suburban Rail Loop is wasteful and unwanted.
“This is literally burning 35 billion for a train line nobody literally nobody wants as an excuses for a housing policy.”
Listen at 9:37
Ben Carroll should distance himself from the Victorian Labor government’s failures.
“My advice to Ben Carroll, who some chance he's listening to the podcast, is don't go down with this ship.”
Listen at 12:03
Victoria would still have a Liberal premier if One Nation wins more seats.
“It'll still be a Liberal premier because everyone kind of understands.”
Listen at 13:04
The Liberal Party cannot support One Nation governing as premier or prime minister.
“Even federally, the Liberal Party cannot support government where they're letting one nation govern as prime minister or premier.”
Listen at 13:14
Victoria’s economic performance has been disastrous relative to other Australian states.
“Victoria has been an absolute disaster.”
Listen at 14:40
Recent employment growth is supply-led rather than demand-led.
“But the consensus seems to be this is supply led employment growth.”
Listen at 16:04
Supply-led employment growth should not drive inflation.
“But that shouldn't drive inflation.”
Listen at 16:20
Immigration reduces inflation by increasing labor supply.
“Immigration essentially is disinflationary because increases the supply of labor.”
Listen at 16:43
New York’s renter protections reduce housing supply and worsen conditions for renters.
“So it's exactly the same. So you've got these government, these far left governments pretending, masquerading as having policies that help the people inverted commerce but actually just make it worse for people.”
Listen at 18:47
Social media has democratized the creation of celebrity wealth.
“Social media, for all its fault has. Fault has been the great democratization of celebrity wealth has come from social media.”
Listen at 35:27
Etched’s transformer-specific chip may be 200 times faster than Nvidia chips.
“This thing can maybe be 200 times faster.”
Listen at 41:51
Etched already has a $1 billion order book.
“They have a $1 billion order book already done.”
Listen at 42:25
Nvidia’s inference-chip market share may fall to about 30%.
“I think it's down to kind of 30.”
Listen at 44:08
OpenAI will fail unless AI inference costs fall substantially.
“OpenAI is 100% dead unless something like that happens.”
Listen at 46:37
AI infrastructure financing primarily involves hyperscaler borrowers.
“This is mostly hyperscalers ultimately borrowing.”
Listen at 48:50
OpenAI’s bankruptcy would likely trigger many neocloud failures.
“If OpenAI goes broke, probably a whole lot of neoclass collapse happens.”
Listen at 49:21
Hyperscalers shift AI capital expenditure into operating expenditure presentation.
“it's really capex that you're just shifting to OPEX so that it doesn't look too bad in your own financial statements”
Listen at 51:05
Reported AI-related earnings are distorted by capitalization and investment markups.
“So we've got double. So there's two reasons why these earnings are just a fraud.”
Listen at 52:39
AI-boom earnings may represent economically fake revenue despite being reported as real.
“this could be the same thing again this is fake. It's real revenue in inverted commons but it's really fake revenue.”
Listen at 53:01
AI-related private credit resembles another subprime-mortgage-style risk.
“That feels like another whole whole subprime mortgage thing.”
Listen at 53:26
Shorting AI is likely to cause losses before the sector eventually crashes.
“you can't short AI because you're going to go broke waiting.”
Listen at 54:35
Nvidia will survive an AI-sector crash.
“Nvidia, not investment is gonna survive a crash.”
Listen at 55:01
Nvidia’s share price could fall 80 percent in an AI crash.
“They could drop 80% but back to 20, 25. They're vulnerable.”
Listen at 55:28
CoreWeave is highly leveraged and could potentially fail.
“Corweave has no assets and lots of debt, heavily leveraged and so you could try to pick them off.”
Listen at 56:16
The AI investment boom might continue for another three years.
“But it might last another three years.”
Listen at 57:11
Waymo’s need for Uber’s distribution was temporary.
“everything that Uber had to offer them was going to be transient.”
Listen at 1:01:32
Uber should partner with Chinese autonomous-vehicle companies likely to dominate the market.
“I think Uber should just make deals with Chinese companies because that's just going to dominate the market probably.”
Listen at 1:07:14
Uber can succeed as an autonomous-vehicle ride-hailing platform without Waymo.
“I think Uber can still succeed as a ride hailing app for autonomous vehicles even if they don't have Waymo.”
Listen at 1:08:43
Self-driving cars will become widely used within five to ten years.
“I expect in five years time we're all taking these self driving cars everywhere or certainly in 10 years time.”
Listen at 1:09:02
RBA changes are causing bank fees to return across Australian banking.
“we're entering an era where bank fees are coming back because Revolut's called them subscription. And every other bank has been forced now to charge bank fees by these necessarily RBA changes. And so it's the return of the bank fee era.”
Listen at 1:12:50
RBA changes have reduced rewards, increased interest rates, and restored bank fees.
“the RBA change has given us these three benefits. Fewer points, higher interest rates and bank fees.”
Listen at 1:13:15
Revolut’s valuation rose to $115 billion, making it Europe’s most valuable startup.
“It was valued 115 billion US last week, up from 75 last year. This is on fire, this thing. It's Europe's most valuable startup.”
Listen at 1:13:30
Australian first-home prices rose while other market segments fell.
“What's the only place in the passing market's gone up? First homes. As we said. As we said they would at the time.”
Listen at 1:18:37
Australia’s housing policies have increased its exposure to rising unemployment.
“this country has just massively increased its risk exposure to rising unemployment.”
Listen at 1:20:09
Australian first-home property prices may eventually decline.
“these first home buyers. And yes, they haven't dropped yet, but they may eventually drop.”
Listen at 1:20:22
Taxpayers will absorb losses from the government-backed housing scheme through write-offs or bankruptcies.
“the taxpayer is on the hook for it. And what will happen is either the government has to write that off on behalf of taxpayers or first bankruptcy”
Listen at 1:23:29
Rising housing bad debts will sharply reduce Australian bank share prices.
“when that happens, all the bank share prices suddenly get smashed because like they've got always a rear. That's something. They've got these bad debt”
Listen at 1:24:55
Victoria’s finances will deteriorate severely if property transactions remain stalled for three years.
“imagine how bad Victoria's going to be in three years time with no properties transacting.”
Listen at 1:27:36
Victoria is currently close to insolvency.
“Victoria is very close to insolvent.”
Listen at 1:28:15
The Australian government will prevent Victoria from defaulting because of sovereign-risk concerns.
“The Australian government won't let Victoria go broke because too much sovereign risk.”
Listen at 1:28:31
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
Jacinta Allan
Ed Husic
UnemploymentListen to the full episode and explore every guest, topic, and moment on PodLume.