Oct 1, 2026 · 1h 20m
Turning Point bets on pouches to become nicotine’s third force
$TPB: can Turning Point Brands be the third player in nicotine pouches? | Saberpoint Capital
The thesis hinges on whether Turning Point’s legacy businesses can fund Free and Alp before regulation, manufacturing, and management execution test the growth story.
- 1Zig-Zag and Stoker’s provide downside support while Free and Alp offer exposure to a fast-growing nicotine-pouch category.
- 2Domestic manufacturing could narrow Turning Point’s cost disadvantage, but regulatory constraints have delayed the transition and preserved execution risk.
- 3Alp’s brand momentum and distribution reach support the upside case, while valuation depends on uncertain ownership, financing, and growth assumptions.
Don't miss
Baxter links Alp’s early Tucker Carlson promotion to a broader brand identity and asks whether its momentum can survive beyond the celebrity association.
The brief
George Baxter of Saber Point Capital presents a bull case for Turning Point: Zig-Zag and Stoker’s support the downside while Free and Alp could challenge Zyn and Velo.
The pouch thesis rests on habit and convenience-store distribution, where portability and discreet use may help the category convert consumers and build repeat purchasing.
Turning Point is investing ahead of earnings, importing pouches from India while pursuing domestic manufacturing that could materially improve costs and margins.
The central competitive question is whether a larger sales force and independent-retailer access can overcome regulation, major tobacco rivals, and brand-building costs.
Alp becomes the episode’s biggest upside variable, with Tucker Carlson’s early promotion giving way to a broader identity whose durability remains unproven.
Baxter’s valuation separates legacy-business downside from an ambitious 2030 scenario, while his discussion of confirmation bias underscores the thesis’s uncertainty.
What was said on this episode
31 statements · 24 positive · 4 negative · 3 neutral
Turning Point leads the declining U.S. chewing-tobacco market.
“they're the market leader in, uh, in chew, which is a, a declining, a small declining market”
Listen at 4:38
ALP is probably the fastest-growing sizable U.S. consumer product.
“ALP brand, which is probably the fastest growing consumer product in the United States today”
Listen at 7:10
The nicotine-pouch market is currently growing about 22% annually.
“The market's growing at about 22%.”
Listen at 12:40
Nicotine-pouch sales averaged roughly 37–38% annual growth over five years.
“on average for the last 5 years, it's been something like 37-38% average annual growth”
Listen at 12:46
Free and ALP reached 48% of Turning Point’s revenue after launching nationally.
“TurningPoint has managed within, you know, since they launched their nationally launched free in 2024, between free and ALP, Uh, you know, they've managed to take that from, you know, really nothing in their revenues to 48% as of the, the last earnings report.”
Listen at 13:02
Habitual nicotine-pouch users tend to gravitate toward one brand.
“but ultimately you tend to gravitate towards, uh, towards a particular brand”
Listen at 16:43
About 4% of U.S. nicotine-pouch sales occur online.
“in the United States, it's about 4%.”
Listen at 19:08
Nicotine pouches can be used on airplanes where smoking and vaping cannot.
“If you're on an airplane for 4 hours, you can't smoke a cigarette, you can't vape, but you can use a nicotine pouch”
Listen at 23:12
The nicotine-pouch market will narrow to one or two smaller competitors plus big tobacco brands.
“I personally believe that over time we will narrow this down to basically 1 or 2 competitors that are not large, big tobacco today and the big tobacco competitors.”
Listen at 26:27
The original Velo nicotine pouch was an inferior product.
“Velo, by the way, the first one was just— it was just sawdust in a little sachet. Uh, horrible.”
Listen at 30:24
Velo Plus is a high-quality nicotine-pouch product.
“Velo Plus came out, and that's a very good product, there's no question.”
Listen at 30:35
Velo’s market share rose from roughly 2–3% to 20%.
“they've gone from You know, essentially like a 2 or 3 share under the old Velo to a 20 share today.”
Listen at 30:45
ALP is the fastest-growing sizable nicotine-pouch brand by percentage.
“ALP is the fastest growing, uh, on a percentage basis, uh, nicotine pouch of, you know, among the ones that are of any size, of any real size.”
Listen at 31:12
Combined Zyn and Zyn Ultra sales are growing 2% year over year.
“if you take Zen and Zen Ultra and add them together, they're growing 2% year over year.”
Listen at 31:55
Zyn’s market share fell from roughly 78% to 54%.
“last year, I think at the beginning of the year, I want to say Zen was something like 78% share. Today that's down to about 54%.”
Listen at 32:33
PMTA liberalization will leave many smaller nicotine players without viable exits.
“I think the door has been shut for a lot of these smaller players, and it's just a matter of time before they run out of money.”
Listen at 36:07
Turning Point’s durability makes it attractive to convenience-store buyers.
“Turning Point fits that very well because one of the questions you're asking as a C-store buyer is, Is this company going to be around?”
Listen at 38:54
Turning Point expanded regional salespeople from 100 to about 260, targeting 320.
“In 2024, they had 100 regional salespeople to support Zigzag and Stokers. Now, uh, they're at about 260, on their way to about 320”
Listen at 39:41
Domestic production could reduce Turning Point’s pouch cost from $1.40 to about $0.65 per can.
“if they produced it domestically, that $1.40 would likely go down to about $0.65 and possibly lower”
Listen at 44:07
Turning Point will likely begin domestic pouch manufacturing by late next year.
“I think that that will happen probably at the latest in the second half of next year.”
Listen at 46:35
Turning Point’s legacy business is worth approximately $35–$45 per share.
“the legacy business is probably worth somewhere in the neighborhood of call it $35 to $45 a share.”
Listen at 52:38
Free’s marketing spending has uncertain returns and warrants skepticism.
“as far as getting a great ROI on that, that really remains to be seen. And I think there's reason for skepticism.”
Listen at 53:59
ALP has built its brand more successfully than Free.
“I would argue Alp has been more successful than that in that, in that endeavor than free.”
Listen at 56:24
ALP’s brand has captured Tucker Carlson’s rebellious persona.
“they have managed to capture the spirit of Tucker Carlson in that he's a rebel.”
Listen at 1:02:32
ALP and Free use the same nicotine-pouch product.
“Anybody who uses the product knows Alp and Free are the same product. There's no difference”
Listen at 1:05:08
ALP’s annualized revenue run rate was about $208 million, growing 300% year over year.
“we think they did enough where if you just annualize last quarter, it's about $208 million worth of revenue. Okay, growing 300% year over year.”
Listen at 1:07:28
Turning Point will probably increase its ALP ownership from 50% to about 70%.
“My suspicion, the way that will be done is not through a purchase of the entire business, but it'll probably be for some fraction of it. My guess would be, you know, they go from a 50% ownership to a 70%”
Listen at 1:09:18
The nicotine-pouch market will grow 10–30% annually through 2030.
“I think this market grows anywhere from 10% to 30% CAGR from now until 2030.”
Listen at 1:15:07
Turning Point could reach 10% nicotine-pouch market share.
“I think it's very rational to think that they could have a 10 share.”
Listen at 1:15:32
Turning Point could reach $1,000 per share by 2030 under stated assumptions.
“you're talking about a $1,000 stock at about 36 times earnings, right, in 2030. Okay. For a $60 stock today.”
Listen at 1:16:10
Domestic production could add $90–$100 million of annual EBITDA.
“we're talking about an incremental $90 to $100 million EBITDA.”
Listen at 1:18:11
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