May 31, 2026 · 1h 20m
Technology analyst Benedict Evans compares the AI boom to the 1997 internet
A rational conversation on where AI is actually going | Benedict Evans
Understanding the historical patterns of technology adoption helps businesses cut through current AI hype and identify where long-term economic value will actually accumulate.
- 1AI integration will follow historical patterns of slow enterprise adoption and professional services growth.
- 2Distribution remains the ultimate competitive moat as underlying AI infrastructure faces rapid commoditization.
- 3The technology is transitioning from performing simple tasks to managing entire job functions.
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Benedict Evans explains why distribution, not technology, remains the ultimate moat for software companies in the AI era.
The brief
Technology analyst Benedict Evans argues that today's artificial intelligence boom closely mirrors the early days of the internet in 1997, marking the start of a long, predictable cycle of adoption.
While hype suggests immediate disruption, Evans points out that integrating general-purpose technologies into the broader economy always requires slow, systematic changes in business workflow.
The real value in the AI era will not belong to the underlying infrastructure, which faces rapid commoditization, but to the companies that control distribution and customer relationships.
The next phase of AI development will shift from executing simple, isolated tasks to managing entire job functions, reshaping professional services and corporate operations.
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