Aug 31, 2026 · 49 min
Small-cap patience meets Bitcoin conviction
Andrew Page on small caps, AI & changing his mind on Bitcoin
The episode connects disciplined Australian small-cap research with a high-volatility monetary bet, showing how conviction is built, tested, and revised.
- 1Patience can uncover overlooked small-cap opportunities, but selling successful investments too early can be as costly as backing weak ones.
- 2Publicly testing an investment thesis and using AI to examine reports can sharpen conviction while exposing hope and thesis creep.
- 3Bitcoin’s volatility is central to Andrew Page’s case for treating it as a long-term hard-money position rather than a productive asset.
Don't miss
Andrew Page explains why he changed his mind on Bitcoin and now considers it his highest-conviction position despite its extreme volatility.
The brief
Andrew Page, founder of Strawman, argues that Australian small caps reward patience when fear creates mispriced opportunities—but concentration only works when conviction is more than hope.
His process combines community debate, public accountability, and AI-assisted analysis of annual reports and management promises, designed to expose weak assumptions before capital follows them.
Adrad Holdings becomes the case study: a family-founded radiator business whose cooling solutions for data centers and power infrastructure could matter more than its modest headline growth suggests.
Page’s Bitcoin thesis rests on a different comparison set. He treats it as digital hard money competing with gold, while accepting that its price can halve even during a long-term accumulation strategy.
The through line is a willingness to revise beliefs: Page regrets selling Pro Medicus too early and now regards Bitcoin as his highest-conviction position.
What was said on this episode
37 statements · 26 positive · 6 negative · 1 mixed · 4 neutral
Australian small-cap markets always contain investment opportunities.
“There is always opportunity.”
Listen at 2:26
Small-cap companies have greater upside potential than large companies.
“By virtue of the fact that they are small, you know, it's almost axiomatic. They have more upside potential.”
Listen at 5:10
Long-term patience is the main source of investment returns.
“The real money is made in the waiting.”
Listen at 5:55
Andrew’s portfolio is highly concentrated in three or four investments.
“80% of my portfolio would be in three or four different investments.”
Listen at 10:50
Genuinely high-conviction investment ideas are very rare.
“genuinely good ideas, like really, really good ideas that you are high conviction on are super rare.”
Listen at 11:26
Hope alone is not a valid investment strategy.
“hope is not an investment strategy”
Listen at 12:29
Investors should write down their investment thesis and expectations.
“The thing I always advocate is just write it down.”
Listen at 14:01
Investors should publicly test their investment ideas.
“pitching it publicly”
Listen at 15:35
Investors should not rationalize mistakes or average down on losing investments.
“The worst thing you can do is when you are wrong is rationalize and average down and do all that kind of stuff.”
Listen at 16:16
Andrew has a home-field advantage and ample opportunities in Australian small caps.
“I feel as though I've got I know the jurisdiction, I know the geography, I know the culture, I've got access to people, and there's more opportunities than I can poke a stick at.”
Listen at 17:49
LLMs dramatically accelerate searching and analyzing annual reports.
“LLM is like that on steroids.”
Listen at 18:53
Andrew does not use AI to replace his own investment reasoning.
“I don't use it to think for me.”
Listen at 20:14
AI has become indispensable to Andrew’s investment research process.
“it's at the point now where I'm not going back. I couldn't imagine going back”
Listen at 22:56
AI systems require data centers.
“AI needs newsflash, in case you don't know, needs data centers.”
Listen at 24:33
Adrad’s book equity exceeds its market capitalization.
“The equity on the book is worth more than the market cap, even on a net asset basis.”
Listen at 25:38
Adrad trades at 12 times earnings with minimal debt and substantial cash.
“It's a PE of 12. It's got virtually no debt. It's got a mountain of cash.”
Listen at 25:59
Adrad’s heat-transfer solutions profit is growing strongly.
“the profit is growing really well.”
Listen at 26:57
Adrad has substantial capacity at its new manufacturing plant.
“They've got a ton of capacity with this new plant.”
Listen at 29:16
Artificial intelligence will grow extremely rapidly for many years.
“It's going to grow insanely fast for a long, long time.”
Listen at 30:01
Most AI-related capital investment will fail to generate successful outcomes.
“Will most of that not work out? Well, I'm pretty sure that's going to be the case.”
Listen at 31:43
AI’s greatest value will accrue in unexpected parts of its ecosystem.
“The value will be made, will be extracted in really unexpected places.”
Listen at 31:53
Companies with proprietary data will be advantaged in AI markets.
“I think you're in a really good spot because you've got... a super genius IQ, high IQ AI, so do I, whoop-dee-doo, but I've got all the data and you've got nothing to train or point yours at”
Listen at 32:46
Two-sided marketplaces will likely benefit from powerful network effects.
“Things like two-sided marketplaces will probably be good because network effects are potent and real.”
Listen at 32:59
Xero may lack a durable competitive advantage against AI-enabled alternatives.
“I really worry about zero. I don't know what the competitive edge of zero is.”
Listen at 33:15
A high-quality company is not necessarily a high-quality investment.
“there is a very big difference between a wonderful company and a wonderful investment.”
Listen at 34:38
Investors need both justified optimism and a valuation allowing for mistakes.
“you've got to have a good reason to believe the hype and also a price that allows for the fact that you're probably going to be wrong in a few ways.”
Listen at 34:56
Adrad’s earnings could be 40% higher in five years while its P/E remains 12.
“It's just that earnings are 40% higher.”
Listen at 36:36
Adrad’s earnings will outgrow revenue because of operating leverage.
“The bet is that they will drive their earnings forward and their earnings will be greater than the revenue growth because of the operating leverage.”
Listen at 37:06
Bitcoin will continue to exist in the future.
“Will it still be around in the future? Yes.”
Listen at 39:37
Bitcoin tripled Andrew’s wealth over three years but halved it over one year.
“This thing has tripled our wealth in the last three years and we've lost half our wealth in the last one year.”
Listen at 40:21
Bitcoin markets eventually exhaust willing sellers during accumulation cycles.
“at a point you just run out of sellers.”
Listen at 41:18
Bitcoin lacks gold’s long historical track record and is 17 years old.
“Bitcoin doesn't. It's 17 years old.”
Listen at 43:48
Bitcoin benefits from monetary debasement exposure plus an adoption curve.
“Bitcoin's got the same dynamic, except it's also got an adoption curve on top of it.”
Listen at 44:29
Bitcoin will capture some of gold’s market share.
“Is it reasonable that it takes some of gold's market share? Yep.”
Listen at 45:21
Bitcoin could rise fifteenfold by capturing half of gold’s market share.
“let's say it captures half of gold's market share over the long term, right? Well, that's still a 15x from this point.”
Listen at 45:27
Bitcoin’s potential market encompasses roughly eight billion people.
“The total addressable market for Bitcoin is 8 billion people because everyone in the world likes money and everyone in the world hates debasement.”
Listen at 46:40
Bitcoin will remain in existence because established ideas are difficult to eliminate.
“why is it going to be around in the same way that you can't kill an idea”
Listen at 47:03
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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