May 17, 2026 · 1h 29m
Small-cap miners weigh cash flow against exploration risk
S11 Ep71: Sunday Roast featuring Paul Welch from Buccaneer Energy and Colin Bird from Kendrick Resources #BUCE #KEN #BZT #AFP #XTR #UOG #RMR #EGT #AMRQ #SRVL #GWMO
The episode tests whether improving operating cash flow and rare-earth discoveries can justify higher valuations before technical and market risks are resolved.
- 1Buccaneer Energy outlines production growth funded by internal cash flow, bank support and higher oil prices rather than dilutive equity.
- 2Kendrick Resources presents a potentially large rare-earth discovery, but metallurgy, independent validation and processing remain decisive hurdles.
- 3The panel compares mining valuations across early-stage projects, stressing both the upside of exploration and the risk of overpaying for promise.
Don't miss
Colin Bird argues that Kendrick’s 112-metre rare-earth drill result could point to a substantially larger system, while acknowledging metallurgy as the key remaining technical test.
The brief
Paul Welch says Buccaneer Energy’s rising production and oil cash flow can fund expansion at the Falk waterflood and OR project without dilutive equity.
Colin Bird presents Kendrick Resources’ 112-metre rare-earth drill result as evidence of a potentially much larger system than its initial 14-million-tonne estimate.
The Kendrick discussion turns on what comes next: channel sampling, trenching, assays and metallurgy must establish scale, grade and a viable processing route.
Bird also outlines construction and financing plans for Byzant Resources, while discussing copper-gold economics, African Pioneer’s Ongombo project and Xtract’s production milestones.
After the interviews, the panel debates Kendrick’s sharp re-rating against comparable miners, arguing that external validation could determine whether the valuation has further room.
What was said on this episode
34 statements · 32 positive · 2 neutral
Gold and silver will reach record highs by year-end.
“I think by the end of the year we'll have a record high on both gold and silver.”
Listen at 3:33
Buccaneer generated over $200,000 and expects nearly $270,000 monthly free cash flow.
“Last month we made over $200,000 in free cash flow. This month we're looking very close to $270,000”
Listen at 7:29
Buccaneer can reach 200–250 barrels daily through internally funded growth.
“With these 2 projects, you know, we think we can get up to 200 to 250 barrels a day just through internal growth, no outside capital required.”
Listen at 11:03
Buccaneer acquisitions would require 40–50% company capital, with banks funding the remainder.
“Any deal that we do would require anywhere between 40-50% capital from our side and then the remainder coming from the bank.”
Listen at 12:32
Buccaneer’s share-price gap to over-$10-million NPV will naturally close.
“That gap between our, you know, our NPV value, which is over $10 million, and our current share price will naturally close”
Listen at 14:35
Oil prices will remain high longer than initially expected.
“I think high prices are here for a lot longer than people originally expected.”
Listen at 16:29
Buccaneer shareholders are close to receiving improved returns.
“I think we're, we're to the point now where I think the reward is just around the corner.”
Listen at 17:16
Kendrick’s project is highly attractive if it maintains 3–3.5% grades.
“If you can maintain grades of 3, 3.5%, with the light magnetics being predominant, 25% of your value, then you're on to a very, very good project.”
Listen at 19:24
Kendrick’s project is developing both substantial tonnage and strong grade.
“This project is shaping up to have both.”
Listen at 19:47
Kendrick’s rare-earth project is world-class.
“I think we are looking at a world-class project without any doubt whatsoever.”
Listen at 21:09
Kendrick’s identified tonnage is approaching Mountain Pass’s scale.
“I don't know whether it will go to 28, what it'll go to, but we're already getting very close to Mountain Pass”
Listen at 23:00
Kendrick’s project exceeds Bird’s prior expectations for size, quality, and consistency.
“I had no idea of either the magnitude, the quality, or the consistency of this project.”
Listen at 25:49
Kendrick may be among the best rare-earth projects ever discovered.
“I'm now being bold enough to suggest that it might be one of the best, if not the best project which has probably ever been discovered.”
Listen at 26:06
Kendrick’s maiden resource will exceed 14 million tonnes.
“I expect to come with a maiden resource well in excess of that.”
Listen at 32:23
Kendrick can help meet Western rare-earth demand.
“this project looks like it's going to be the answer, part of the answer, to the Western demand.”
Listen at 35:37
Byzant expects to produce concentrate by August or September.
“I'll be producing concentrate hopefully by August, September.”
Listen at 43:48
Byzant could generate $40 million annual surplus at 14,000 tonnes of copper.
“at 14,000-ton copper is hitting $40 million a year surplus income over expenditure”
Listen at 44:48
Byzant is extremely likely to become a much larger project.
“The potential for a really big project, I wouldn't say it exists. It's extremely likely.”
Listen at 47:13
Byzant is expected to contain at least 500,000 tonnes of copper.
“we'd be very disappointed if we didn't find 500, at least 500,000 tons of contained copper.”
Listen at 48:22
Byzant’s projected surplus cash flow exceeds $40 million.
“a surplus of income over expenditure, i.e., cash flow, is in— is $40 million plus.”
Listen at 49:46
Ongombo contains 300,000 tonnes of copper with open-ended exploration potential.
“It's 300,000 tons of contained copper. It's an open-ended in all directions.”
Listen at 52:26
Silver King is expected to start at 3,000–3,500 tonnes of copper.
“Silver King starting off as a, as a modest project, around about 3,000-3,500 tonnes of copper”
Listen at 59:21
Silver King contains over 200 grams of silver per tonne in situ.
“we got over 200 grams silver in situ.”
Listen at 1:01:54
Xtract is highly likely to produce antimony and copper-silver-gold concentrates this year.
“a lot, a lot would have to go wrong for it not to achieve those 2 objectives.”
Listen at 1:03:30
Kendrick can double its identified rare-earth tonnage and become world-class.
“If we double that tonnage, we're definitely world-class and we're absolutely convinced we can do that.”
Listen at 1:04:24
Kendrick may become the world’s largest emerging rare-earth project.
“I would put it the way it's shaping to be one, if not the biggest emerging rare earth project in the world.”
Listen at 1:08:59
Kendrick’s key remaining technical risk is establishing viable metallurgy.
“We've got to get the metallurgy right.”
Listen at 1:10:48
Kendrick’s share price is likely to continue rising, subject to risks.
“I think the only way still is upwards”
Listen at 1:15:15
Kendrick could be valued at £100 million within months.
“to say that this project over the next few weeks and months was valued at £100 million is by no means blowing it out of the equation.”
Listen at 1:16:02
Amaroq will re-rate to £2 per share by Christmas.
“I think, I think second half of this year it's, it's, it's going to re-rate to £2 a share by Christmas, fingers crossed.”
Listen at 1:20:10
Serval Resources is expected to perform extremely well.
“I think, I think Serval is going to do extremely well.”
Listen at 1:20:50
Serval will eventually drill and discover copper on its Botswana licenses.
“it's just a matter of time before we go drilling and, uh, we find the copper we're looking for.”
Listen at 1:20:54
Great Western Mining may experience a major share-price rise.
“potentially going to go on a tear.”
Listen at 1:21:28
Great Western Mining appears to have promising assets.
“I do think that they have something good.”
Listen at 1:22:38
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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