Sep 5, 2026 · 9 min
Santos’s Kalshi bets expose prediction-market risks
Unraveling the story about George Santos' insider trading on Kalshi
The case shows how prediction markets can turn privileged political information into trades while amplifying concerns about election integrity.
- 1Bobby Allyn traced George Santos’s Kalshi bets after conversations with current and former company employees.
- 2Kalshi permanently banned Santos and fined him more than $70,000 over alleged insider trading tied to the State of the Union.
- 3As prediction markets enter mainstream election coverage, viral content and misleading news could influence political behavior and public trust.
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Bobby Allyn recounts Santos’s aggressive reaction and the decision to make his threats public.
The brief
Kalshi permanently banned George Santos and imposed a fine exceeding $70,000 after determining he engaged in insider trading on a bet about attending the State of the Union.
NPR technology correspondent Bobby Allyn explains how conversations with current and former Kalshi employees led him to investigate Santos’s trades and confront his response.
Santos reacted with an aggressive phone call and threats; Allyn discusses why the reporting made those threats public, alongside references to Santos’s federal convictions and commuted sentence.
The case raises a broader question: as prediction markets become mainstream around elections, could market incentives, viral posts and misleading news encourage political chaos or alter voter behavior?
Allyn argues that the Santos story matters beyond one former congressman because it tests how prediction markets handle privileged information before major elections.
Featuring
Bobby AllynMentioned
Kalshi
George Santos
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