Jul 17, 2026 · 46 min
Ryder targets forced selling in overlooked small caps
3 small caps powering Ryder Capital’s double-digit growth and fully franked dividends
Lauren De Zilva explains how Ryder Capital balances concentrated bets and fully franked dividends against the risks of small-company investing.
- 1Ryder seeks mispriced small and micro-cap companies through balance-sheet discipline, downside protection and long holding periods.
- 2Negative sentiment, failed raisings and forced selling can create entry points when operational prospects remain intact.
- 3Permanent capital supports concentration and liquidity management while returns fund a stable, growing fully franked dividend.
Don't miss
Lauren De Zilva chooses Cuscal as the company she would own if markets closed for five years, citing its payment infrastructure and regulatory moat.
The brief
Lauren De Zilva, Ryder Capital’s portfolio manager, explains how the firm evolved from managing founders’ money into a concentrated small- and micro-cap investment business.
Ryder’s sector-agnostic process narrows a broad universe through valuation, balance-sheet strength and downside protection, accepting volatility while trying to avoid permanent capital loss.
Simble illustrates the bad-news filter: a founder-led infrastructure company traded below its issue price after negative headlines, creating an opportunity despite a stronger operational outlook.
BCI’s shift from iron ore royalties to a large salt project shows how infrastructure, demand and long-term shareholders can reshape a small-cap investment case.
The discussion extends beyond resources to Phineos and Cuscal, as De Zilva weighs AI disruption, competitive moats and the companies she could hold for five years.
Ryder’s concentrated portfolio, three-to-five-year holding periods and permanent capital underpin a strategy targeting compounding returns alongside stable, growing fully franked dividends.
What was said on this episode
12 statements · 10 positive · 2 negative
Rider’s NextEC investment rose from $2 to $12 over approximately seven years.
“NextEC. So Rider invested in that at $2, exited at $12 over sort of 7 years”
Listen at 2:38
BCI’s salt market remains undersupplied because Asian demand exceeds new supply.
“there was a thesis at the time which still holds today that there was a supply deficit in salt coming in the market based on the demand profile from Asia, from Asian economic growth, and a lack of new supply coming onto the market.”
Listen at 15:41
An impending salt supply deficit should support higher salt prices.
“we've got the view that there's an impending supply deficit in salt, which should support a constructive outlook for the salt price.”
Listen at 18:02
BCI could generate $300 million in post-tax cash flow at full production.
“we think that BCI could produce $300 million of post-tax cash flow.”
Listen at 20:28
BCI’s share price should re-rate as free cash flow begins to grow.
“we think that over time, as BCI starts to generate that free cash flow, the share price should re-rate towards a more appropriate yield.”
Listen at 20:40
BCI could be valued at $1.50 per share using a 15-times free-cash-flow multiple.
“we think about 15 times free cash flow as a share price of $1.50.”
Listen at 20:51
BCI could deliver an 18% annual compounded return over eight years, excluding dividends.
“that could be an 18% compounding return for the next 8 years excluding dividends.”
Listen at 21:02
BCI’s annual return could exceed 20% when dividends are included.
“that could look like 20% plus with dividends as well.”
Listen at 21:07
Prolonged weakness in salt prices would negatively affect BCI’s investment case.
“if that was, if that was lengthened and we kept seeing weakness in the price, that's a negative.”
Listen at 22:20
Additional salt supply could pressure salt prices.
“if suddenly some additional supply came onto the market, that's a risk to the salt price.”
Listen at 22:27
BCI can monetize excess port capacity beyond its own 5.5-million-tonne output.
“The BCI project at full run rate is 5.5 million tonnes, so there's a lot of excess capacity there that can actually be monetized by BCI.”
Listen at 23:42
BCI will generate additional profits by monetizing existing infrastructure.
“BCI will be able to generate extra profits and really monetize their existing assets and infrastructure.”
Listen at 24:08
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
Featuring
Australian Securities ExchangeListen to the full episode and explore every guest, topic, and moment on PodLume.