Oct 4, 2026 · 18 min
Miami housing balances demand against affordability and supply
The Miami Market!
South Florida’s outlook depends on whether migration and tax advantages can sustain demand while limited inventory and high borrowing costs constrain buyers.
- 1Single-family sales are stronger, but rate-locked owners are limiting inventory and keeping affordability strained.
- 2Miami’s condo market continues recovering from post-Surfside regulations, while luxury demand remains tied to international appeal.
- 3Migration from New York and California remains elevated, supporting forecasts for modest sales and price growth through 2027.
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Cororaton connects continued migration from New York and California, Florida’s tax advantages, and modest growth forecasts through 2027.
The brief
Economist Scholastica “Gay” Cororaton of MIAMI REALTORS® examines South Florida’s housing market, where stronger single-family sales coexist with rising prices and elevated mortgage rates.
The central constraint is supply: rate-locked owners are holding back listings, while homes below $400,000 remain scarce in Miami-Dade compared with places such as St. Lucie.
Condos are recovering from post-Surfside regulations, while Miami’s luxury market continues drawing international demand and commanding higher thresholds for its top sales tiers.
Migration remains above 2019 levels, though below the pandemic surge, with New York and California still important sources of new South Florida residents.
Cororaton forecasts modest sales and price growth through 2027, supported by out-of-state migration and Florida’s widening tax advantage over California and New York.
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