Mar 27, 2026 · 18 min
Iran war volatility tests small-cap bargain hunters
Paul's Podcast - Fri 27 Mar 2026
Paul Scott weighs whether wartime market disruption is temporary noise or an opening for long-term investors.
- 1The Iran war’s fourth week is intensifying volatility across markets and complicating short-term investment decisions.
- 2Scott sees disruption creating potential long-term bargains despite the uncertainty surrounding current prices.
- 3A severe cold has not displaced his focus on UK small- and mid-cap opportunities.
Don't miss
Paul Scott argues that the Iran war’s market disruption may be generating long-term bargains despite intense short-term uncertainty.
The brief
Paul Scott opens amid the difficult fourth week of the Iran war, with market volatility making near-term conditions unusually hard to interpret.
His central tension is straightforward: wartime disruption can obscure value in the short run while creating attractive entry points for patient investors.
Scott remains focused on UK small- and mid-cap opportunities, arguing that uncertainty does not eliminate the possibility of long-term bargains.
Even while recovering from a severe cold, Scott keeps the discussion centered on how investors should think through volatility rather than react to it.
What was said on this episode
20 statements · 11 positive · 9 negative
Litigation financing lacks the characteristics Paul seeks in investments.
“I've never seen any attraction to litigation financing as a sector because it's pretty much the opposite of what I look for.”
Listen at 2:07
Everyman Media is not at immediate risk of insolvency.
“I don't think it's in any immediate risk of insolvency.”
Listen at 3:56
Repeated large insider purchases usually indicate something positive is happening.
“I think, you know, when directors of small caps start spending £100,000+ on shares and they do it several times, you can be pretty sure in my experience that something good is happening.”
Listen at 4:13
Repeated large insider purchases usually indicate something favorable is happening.
“when directors of small caps start spending £100,000+ on shares and they do it several times, you can be pretty sure in my experience that something good is happening.”
Listen at 4:14
Everyman Media may offer an interesting investment opportunity.
“I think there might be something interesting there.”
Listen at 4:29
GB Group generates cash and is repairing its balance sheet internally.
“I like the way it is a nice cash-generative business, and it's repairing its balance sheet from, you know, internally generated cash flows.”
Listen at 5:24
Paul is moderately positive about GB Group.
“I'm actually moderately positive.”
Listen at 5:34
Future Group is a value trap.
“I actually think it's a value trap.”
Listen at 5:57
Future Group has excessive debt and a weak balance sheet.
“I think it's a value trap. It's got way too much debt, very weak balance sheet as well.”
Listen at 6:29
Future Group is a value trap.
“I think it's a value trap.”
Listen at 6:29
High debt combined with declining earnings is unattractive.
“I just don't like combining a lot of debt with declining earnings.”
Listen at 6:37
Future Group's declining earnings are likely to continue.
“I suspect that's likely to continue.”
Listen at 6:47
Future Group is not in immediate danger.
“I don't think it's any immediate danger, so I don't need to warn you away from it.”
Listen at 7:08
Seeing Machines' product works and has been proven in millions of vehicles.
“The product does work and it's proven in millions of vehicles.”
Listen at 14:37
Markets may be approaching a capitulation low.
“I do wonder if we're getting near a capitulation low now, possibly.”
Listen at 15:25
Markets could fall sharply if the Middle Eastern situation escalates.
“But we could have another big leg down if the Middle Eastern situation escalates.”
Listen at 15:29
Several more weeks of considerable market difficulties are likely.
“I think probably a few more weeks of considerable difficulties look likely.”
Listen at 15:37
Paul does not intend to sell his holdings amid current conditions.
“I'm not interested in selling anything.”
Listen at 15:42
Current share prices do not accurately value businesses' long-term potential.
“The share price is just background noise. That's what the market currently— the balance of buyers and sellers are. It's not an accurate valuation of the actual business and its long-term potential.”
Listen at 15:50
Stock pickers should remain invested through difficult macroeconomic conditions.
“I think you've got to be stubborn and ride out these, um, difficult macro conditions if you're going to be a stock picker”
Listen at 16:23
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
Featuring
Burford
United States
ArgentinaListen to the full episode and explore every guest, topic, and moment on PodLume.