Aug 29, 2026 · 56 min

Iran tests U.S. resolve as China upgrades Russia’s drones

The PDB Situation Report | August 29th, 2026: Iran’s Plan to Push the U.S. Navy Out of Hormuz & China Upgrades Russia’s Shaheds

The episode connects pressure around the Strait of Hormuz, critical-infrastructure vulnerabilities, and China’s expanding support for Russia and Iran.

3 key takeaways

1Iran may answer economic pressure with renewed attacks, while the blockade’s duration depends on nuclear negotiations and military risk.
2China’s technology is helping advance Russia’s Shahed drones as autonomous warfare reshapes conflicts involving Ukraine and Iran.
3China’s economic weakness may constrain a Taiwan invasion, but Beijing could exploit reduced U.S. presence with more regional provocations.

Don't miss

Gordon Chang argues that Chinese technology is accelerating autonomous drone warfare while supporting Russia’s and Iran’s broader proxy conflicts.

The brief

The episode opens with Iran’s reported effort to restrict U.S. naval access through the Strait of Hormuz, weighing the blockade’s durability against the risk of renewed attacks.

Retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery argues that economic pressure could push Iran toward military escalation, while U.S. leaders must balance nuclear goals against stretched forces.

Montgomery and Mike Baker broaden the threat to cyberattacks on water, power, ports, and transportation, including China’s Volt Typhoon operation and chronic infrastructure weaknesses.

Gordon Chang describes Chinese support for Iran and Russia as a foundation for upgraded Shahed drones, proxy warfare, and increasingly autonomous targeting in Ukraine.

The closing discussion links China’s economic weakness to Taiwan calculations, arguing Beijing may favor provocative activity around the region over an immediate invasion.

Featuring

Gordon G. Chang