Aug 20, 2026 · 16 min
Falling crime rates complicate Trump’s political advantage
Crime in the U.S. is down. Why?
The episode explains why a genuine national decline in violent crime may still be shaped politically by local fears, selective claims, and campaign messaging.
- 1Murder has reached its lowest level in two decades after a sharp spike between 2020 and 2022.
- 2National crime trends reflect local conditions, making it difficult to credit any single presidential policy.
- 3Crime remains a potent campaign issue because visceral safety concerns can outweigh broader statistical evidence.
Don't miss
The hosts explain why crime can remain a powerful Republican campaign issue even as national rates fall and broader approval is weak.
The brief
The episode opens with Donald Trump claiming credit for falling violent-crime and murder rates, then examines the FBI’s 2025 statistics behind the broader trend.
Ryan Lucas places the numbers in a 20-year context: murder is at its lowest level in two decades after a spike around 2020–2022, but local factors complicate presidential credit.
The hosts argue that voters’ perceptions can matter more than national comparisons, especially when emotionally powerful crime stories shape judgments about safety and leadership.
Tamara Keith turns to the 2026 midterms, where crime ads are already central to the North Carolina Senate race involving Roy Cooper.
The closing tension is whether falling crime will blunt Republicans’ strongest wedge issue as Democrats move away from defund-the-police rhetoric and seek a credible safety message.
Featuring
Miles Parks
Tamara Keith
Donald John Trump
Federal Bureau of Investigation
Roy Cooper
United StatesListen to the full episode and explore every guest, topic, and moment on PodLume.