Aug 14, 2026 · 1h 4m
El Niño Could Reshape Global Growth
A Historic El Niño Is Coming That Could Cost the World Trillions
The episode shows how a climate pattern can move from Pacific Ocean temperatures into food markets, currencies, inflation, and long-term economic growth.
- 1El Niño links tropical Pacific warming to atmospheric shifts that disrupt weather and economies across interconnected regions.
- 2Forecasting an unusually strong event remains difficult because scientists measure intensity against changing climate baselines and incomplete historical records.
- 3Adaptation can improve market resilience and agricultural planning, but it cannot eliminate direct hazards or persistent losses from major events.
Don't miss
Justin S. Mankin distinguishes temporary price disruptions from persistent losses in economic output and growth after major El Niño events.
The brief
El Niño is not simply warmer water: it emerges from coupled changes in tropical Pacific temperatures, winds, and atmospheric circulation, with consequences far beyond the ocean.
Climate scientist Justin S. Mankin explains why forecasters expect an unusually strong event, while acknowledging the difficulty of comparing today’s signal with shifting climate baselines.
The episode traces how El Niño timing affects planting and harvests, making seasonal forecasts consequential for crops, food markets, inflation, and emerging-market currencies.
Its central economic claim is more serious than a temporary price shock: simultaneous disruptions across connected regions can produce persistent losses in output and growth.
Adaptation, from changing planting dates to strengthening markets and infrastructure, can reduce vulnerability without protecting countries from every direct climate hazard.
Featuring
Pacific Ocean
Citigroup Inc.
Bank of EnglandListen to the full episode and explore every guest, topic, and moment on PodLume.