Sep 18, 2026 · 1h 30m
Democrats see a midterm opening as Trump’s record strains
Will the Blue Wave Be Bigger Than 2018?
The episode tests whether Democratic gains reflect a durable backlash or an overly optimistic reading of uneven races and voter concerns.
- 1Democrats benefit from improving national polling, Republican weakness among independents, and potentially depressed conservative turnout.
- 2Closer races in Minnesota and New Hampshire warn that favorable national conditions may not translate uniformly across states.
- 3Dan Osborn’s independent campaign frames working-class economic frustration outside automatic alignment with either major party.
Don't miss
Dan Osborn explains how an independent Nebraska Senate campaign seeks working-class voters without promising to caucus automatically with either party.
The brief
The hosts argue that Trump’s promises of a golden age are colliding with rising costs, trade conflicts, and economic consequences voters increasingly experience directly.
Democrats appear better positioned for the midterms as generic-ballot numbers improve, Republicans lose ground with independents, and rural disillusionment threatens turnout.
Minnesota and New Hampshire complicate the blue-wave case, showing how candidate strength, polling quality, and state-level dynamics can resist national trends.
The conversation widens to mail-in voting, conservative judicial power, AI safety, and Trump’s fight over the Kennedy Center, linking policy disputes to institutional control.
Dan Osborn tells Jon Favreau why his Nebraska campaign targets working-class voters while rejecting automatic allegiance to either party, including on immigration and healthcare.
Featuring
Dan OsbornMentioned
Donald John Trump
Nate Silver
Pete RickettsBooks & mentions
Listen to the full episode and explore every guest, topic, and moment on PodLume.