Sep 24, 2026 · 33 min
Bond yields test faith in U.S. fiscal management
Bonds Are Going Haywire Again — Howard Marks Explains Why
The episode connects higher borrowing costs, inflation fears, geopolitical disruption, and cooling AI infrastructure enthusiasm into one market-risk picture.
- 1Howard Marks says rising Treasury yields may reflect inflation fears, deficits, and investors demanding protection against weaker future purchasing power.
- 2The Iran conflict shows how uncertain diplomacy and a closed Strait of Hormuz could prolong energy and humanitarian pressures.
- 3SB Energy’s delayed IPO signals that investors may be questioning both lofty data-center valuations and the durability of AI enthusiasm.
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Howard Marks rejects an imminent financial-market collapse while warning that persistent deficits could steadily raise the cost of borrowing for the United States.
The brief
Rising Treasury yields are the episode’s opening warning: investors may be demanding more compensation for inflation, persistent deficits, and uncertainty about future purchasing power.
Howard Marks argues that a sudden financial collapse is unlikely, but sustained borrowing-cost increases could reflect growing dissatisfaction with U.S. fiscal management.
Marks’ sharper point is about timing: investors may anticipate debt consequences without knowing whether markets will react in years, decades, or through abrupt shifts in psychology.
The discussion then turns to Iran and the closed Strait of Hormuz, where uncertain diplomacy could delay energy normalization and amplify fuel, food, and wheat-export pressures.
Ed closes with SB Energy’s postponed IPO, suggesting skepticism toward a $50 billion valuation may be an early test of AI data-center exuberance.
Featuring
Howard Marks
Donald John Trump
United States
United States Department of the Treasury
Brent crudeListen to the full episode and explore every guest, topic, and moment on PodLume.