Aug 28, 2026 · 1h 38m
Big 12 win totals reveal a conference of competing resets
Williams & Blum: Big 12 win/loss total predictions from Vegas
The picks test which Big 12 programs can turn coaching changes, quarterback uncertainty, and uneven schedules into a credible playoff race.
- 1BYU and Texas Tech emerge as the strongest over candidates, with playoff implications attached to their schedules.
- 2Hosts fade Colorado, Kansas, Cincinnati, Kansas State, and UCF while backing several teams facing major transitions.
- 3Iowa State’s 4.5-win line matters less than whether Jimmy Rogers establishes a durable identity and competitive line play.
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The hosts turn Iowa State’s 4.5-win line into a broader test of whether Jimmy Rogers can establish identity and sustainable program foundations.
The brief
From Circa Sports in Las Vegas, Chris Williams and Brent Blum use every Big 12 regular-season win total to examine coaching changes, quarterback questions, roster turnover, and schedule pressure.
BYU gets one of the strongest endorsements: the hosts favor the Cougars over 8.5 wins and frame the Notre Dame matchup as important to the Big 12’s playoff hopes.
The board exposes uncertainty across the league, from Baylor’s questions around DJ Lagway and Dave Aranda to Colorado’s post-stars identity and Kansas State’s coaching transition.
Texas Tech’s 10.5-win line becomes a test of whether an elite defensive front and favorable schedule can outweigh quarterback concerns in the race for the conference lead.
The most revealing pick may be Iowa State at 4.5 wins: the hosts expect only modest results but prioritize evidence that Jimmy Rogers is building a sustainable program.
The closing West Virginia debate splits the hosts, while the broader outlook asks whether Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Iowa State, and Houston can strengthen the conference’s playoff case.
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