Jul 17, 2026 · 53 min
Bending Spoons bets on debt, price hikes and relentless cost cutting
Deep Dive: Bending Spoons - Genius or Disaster?
The episode tests whether Bending Spoons’ acquisition model can produce durable growth or merely amplify leverage, churn and valuation risk.
- 1Bending Spoons acquires established digital products, cuts staff and raises prices to extract cash flow.
- 2Its debt-heavy structure and ambitious return targets make reported profitability and organic growth difficult to assess.
- 3The hosts question whether customer churn, a huge valuation and founder cash-outs weaken the company’s long-term case.
Don't miss
The hosts connect Bending Spoons’ IPO cash-out and massive valuation to the structural risks of its acquired brands and debt-heavy model.
The brief
Adam Schwab and Adir Shiffman introduce Bending Spoons, the Milan-based technology conglomerate that rose from a failed startup through aggressive acquisitions.
The hosts describe a playbook built around buying legacy digital products, cutting staff and raising prices, comparing it to private equity and Warren Buffett’s early “cigarette butt” investing.
The central financial question is whether Bending Spoons’ substantial debt, pooled across its portfolio, can support its ambitious return targets without masking weak underlying growth.
Its refusal to rely on paid digital marketing puts more pressure on price increases and customer stickiness, raising the risk that churn eventually exposes the model’s limits.
The discussion ends with skepticism about the company’s massive valuation and the founders’ IPO cash-out, alongside doubts about the durability of several acquired brands.
What was said on this episode
26 statements · 8 positive · 14 negative · 2 mixed · 2 neutral
Bending Spoons is valued at approximately $23 billion.
“it's actually down to 23 billion now”
Listen at 3:17
Bending Spoons may genuinely resemble a Berkshire Hathaway replica.
“this is the closest company that might genuinely lay claim to being a Berkshire Hathaway replica”
Listen at 3:51
Bending Spoons turned small acquisitions into cash-flow businesses.
“they kind of bought themselves a nice little machine buying these businesses, not very big, turning them into cash flow businesses”
Listen at 5:09
Bending Spoons intends to hold its acquisitions indefinitely.
“The goal of bending spoons is to hold it forever.”
Listen at 7:07
Bending Spoons’ acquired businesses will eventually run out of new customers.
“bang, it hits the bottom, runs out of new customers”
Listen at 9:35
Bending Spoons increases prices and cuts costs to generate short-term profits.
“we're going to charge people double. We're going to juice the revenue a bit, we're going to smash the costs and we're going to generate these at least short term, juicy profit out of it”
Listen at 13:43
Bending Spoons’ acquired businesses can retain approximately 99% of net revenue.
“they can keep 99% net revenue retention of these customer bases”
Listen at 14:28
Bending Spoons raises prices to offset shrinking installed user bases.
“the installed user base is shrinking and they're desperately increasing prices to keep revenue up”
Listen at 16:26
Bending Spoons trades at a substantially higher revenue multiple than Constellation Software.
“Constellation, which is I would say a significantly better business, trades on a revenue multiple 3.5 times. And bending spoons, well it depends which revenue multiple you which revenue number you use. But it's even if you use the last quarter it's still 10 times revenue”
Listen at 21:27
Constellation Software grows and makes acquired businesses profitable.
“Constellation goes and buys businesses and then runs them really well and keeps growing them and makes them profitable”
Listen at 21:46
Bending Spoons’ long-term IRR calculations are highly sensitive to assumptions.
“small changes in your assumptions about what the business is going to do in years 6 to 10 completely changes the IRR outcomes of the business”
Listen at 23:59
Tractive qualifies as a strong business under the Rule of 40.
“this is a business at 35 to 40 on a rule of 40. So ARR growth plus free cash. It's going to. So it's a good. Right, It's a good business.”
Listen at 25:22
Bending Spoons applies its buy-and-milk strategy even to high-quality businesses.
“even when bending spoons pivots to buying good businesses, they still stick to their buy slash milk philosophy”
Listen at 27:33
Bending Spoons’ interest expense eliminates its operating income.
“the interest completely wipes out the income”
Listen at 28:56
Bending Spoons could become more like Berkshire Hathaway if it changes strategy.
“they could turn this into a Berkshire Hathaway”
Listen at 33:30
Bending Spoons has an extremely highly leveraged balance sheet.
“this is a balance sheet that's crazy leveraged”
Listen at 34:36
Bending Spoons’ pooled debt lets successful acquisitions support or endanger the whole company.
“one great winner might save the them, but on the downside, a great winner might end up getting dragged under the water as well”
Listen at 35:37
Bending Spoons combines an empire-building structure with a private-equity-style operating model.
“you've got an empire building corporate structure with a private equity flipping business model sitting underneath it”
Listen at 40:44
Bending Spoons’ expansion-revenue strategy may work for only about a year.
“Eventually they run out of stuff juice to squeeze. That whole expansion revenue thing just doesn't work for forever. It works for maybe a year.”
Listen at 43:42
Without effective digital marketing, Bending Spoons’ businesses may eventually decline to zero.
“without the digital marketing low enough CPAs to fill this bucket, these businesses eventually just drown down to zero”
Listen at 44:32
Bending Spoons needs continuous acquisitions to offset deterioration in older businesses.
“what you need is the, an endless pipeline of acquisitions to keep pouring new versions of these businesses in”
Listen at 45:13
Bending Spoons will likely be worth no more than $5 billion in two years.
“I'll be shocked if this business is worth more than 5 billion in two years time”
Listen at 48:11
Investors should sell Bending Spoons shares.
“To me this is a blazing red hot sell.”
Listen at 48:43
Bending Spoons could continue acquiring high-quality businesses.
“they could keep buying high quality businesses”
Listen at 49:11
Continued price increases would provide major upside for Bending Spoons.
“if they can keep pushing through these price rises, that will be the massive upside”
Listen at 50:01
Tractive may face structural challenges competing with AirTag-like devices.
“how is a business that tracks pets going to survive in the next five years against an air tag or the likes of that type of thing?”
Listen at 51:33
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
Featuring
Milan
Customer retention
Initial Public OfferingListen to the full episode and explore every guest, topic, and moment on PodLume.