Aug 31, 2026 · 37 min
Barkin sees resilience colliding with a more inflationary economy
Richmond Fed’s Tom Barkin on the Surprisingly Resilient Real Economy
The episode tests whether strong demand and AI investment can coexist with persistent inflation, constrained housing, tariffs, and uncertain Fed policy.
- 1Consumer spending, GDP growth, and AI investment are supporting an economy that has not weakened as expected.
- 2Housing shortages, tariffs, and the fading forces of the 2010s could keep inflation higher for longer.
- 3AI’s productivity payoff remains unknowable, leaving the Fed to weigh radically different paths for prices, labor, and rates.
Don't miss
Barkin argues that AI’s most visible near-term economic effect may be political, as data centers provoke local fights over jobs, energy, infrastructure, and scale.
The brief
From Jackson Hole, Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal examine Kevin Warsh’s hawkish speech before asking Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin what businesses are seeing.
Barkin describes a resilient economy powered by consumer spending, GDP growth, and AI-related investment, while household savings and changed spending patterns sustain demand.
The AI boom is already straining electricians, transformers, and other infrastructure, but Barkin says its clearest current effect may be political rather than productivity-driven.
Housing shortages, tariffs, and the end of several 2010s disinflationary forces complicate the Fed’s effort to bring inflation back under control.
Barkin explains how regional business contacts shape policy debates—and why forecasting AI’s effects on prices, labor, capital, and interest rates remains so difficult.
Featuring
Kevin Maxwell Warsh
Jackson HoleListen to the full episode and explore every guest, topic, and moment on PodLume.